Improper odds for the fishies

[bravos1]

I have been seeing more and more posts like the following by Shillx (Brad, in no way am I trying to be disrespectful. I always value your posts. This just happened to be the first I saw this morning.)

[ QUOTE ]

People aren't getting good odds to draw so it becomes less critical to raise. Not a lot of hands can call correctly getting 5:1 while all kinds of stuff should call getting 9:1. You need to prevent them from drawing with good odds hense you raise in raised pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

More and more, I have seen posts like this telling people that they should or should not raise because it gives/does not give the others proper odds for calling.

I understand the principle here, but I do find it odd that we are dictating our own play based on what odds we are giving our opponents. I would guess that 85+ percent of the time, our opponents do not understand the odds at all.

Let's assume our opponent needs 7:1 odds to call (for this example, the pot lays 10:1 if we just call) and we raise making it ~5:1, does this have a huge impact? Most of our opponents are thinking.. "man, only one more card needed to hit my straight, plus I have a pair already". Many will call whether it's proper or not.

If we know a player will call our raise, do we really care that much if we make it "proper" for them or not? So many times in the .50/1 and 1/2 levels I would raise to give improper odds, etc., but I think it really does not matter as many (those I'm getting the most $$ from) would chase irrespective if it was 1, 2, or even 3 bets to them many times.

I have seen so many plays that just don't make sense to me, like a person capping the turn, but folding to one river bet when a fairly non-theatening card falls on the river.... or players capping their gutshots w/ bottom pair when it is already 3 bets to them after the flop [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Does anyone else feel that we should be trying to get as much money into the pot when we have the best chance to win and not really worry about our opponents pot/implied odds when they sure as all are not? Or am I just being stupid? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

?

in small pots guys with 4 outs do not hurt us.

in large pots guys with 4 outs do hurt us.

we make money when people call with insufficient odds.

it is more complicated than this, but yes, you must consider draws, their likelihood, and the odds we can present them.

[TripleH68]

Giving improper odds to call does at least two things for you:

1) may make a thinking player fold. good.
2) when players call with incorrect odds it is a winning play(for you). Think about the math involved.
Even if players are going to call anyway, you still want to give them the chance to make bigger mistakes.

[jaxUp]

I understand what you mean, but on behalf of Brad (as another Brad I can speak on his behalf) I'm sure you are interpreting it wrong. We do not really raise because we want them to fold. From TOP (not a quote):

When a player calls getting proper odds he makes money, and hence we lose money. When he calls getting improper odds we make money and he loses money.

When we offer them improper odds, we do not actually want them to fold, we want them to call incorrectly, because that's when we make the moneys. If they suck out that's fine...we still made sklansky bucks on the play.

I like this post, but suggest that there isn't really a big issue here. When we talk about their odds vs our odds, its all part of the larger issue ... what is the chance that an actual person in an actual pot will win (not just improve, but actually win).

If we raise and they still choose to chase their draw, they are betting below pot odds ... which means they have negative equity ... which means some of that equity is likely going to us (assuming we should be in the pot at all).

So .. i suggest that talking about them having bad pot odds is simply another way of us talking about them betting with -EV. Anything we can do to get them to bet when they shouldn't is good for us.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
If we know a player will call our raise, do we really care that much if we make it "proper" for them or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

By God yes. If I'm a 4:1 favorite to win the hand, I benefit by having the opponent put more money in the pot, not less.

[Greg J]

This is a good question. I will try to take on a couple of the main points, and if I miss anything or was not clear anyone should feel free to follow up with a question or elaboration.

[ QUOTE ]
I understand the principle here, but I do find it odd that we are dictating our own play based on what odds we are giving our opponents. I would guess that 85+ percent of the time, our opponents do not understand the odds at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
The point is that they don't have to know it's a mistake for it to be a mistake. If a player who is relatively clueless makes a bad call, but he doesn't realize it was a bad call, it does not make it any less of a mistake objectively.

Now there are certainly times where you should raise becuase you think he might call anyhow. However, if opponents are drawing dead or almost dead it's sometimes better not to try and force them out. Even some of the worst poker players understand the difference between calling a single bet and cold calling.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else feel that we should be trying to get as much money into the pot when we have the best chance to win and not really worry about our opponents pot/implied odds when they sure as all are not? Or am I just being stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you are not being stupid at all. There are times when this actually is the best idea. There are times when it isn't. Maybe you could post some examples.

EDIT: The point of playing winning poker is to make other players make mistakes (while you don't make mistakes). Sometimes a raise or reraise can make them play correctly (folding) while a less agressive play (calling) may initiate a call they should not make. What they think is correct is irrelevant.

[bravos1]

I understand this... but,

if the pot is 7 BB after the turn coming to me with a bet already in and they are drawing to 4 outs, I can do one of the following assuming my hand is strong:

1. call, which gives them 8:1 to call (incorrect for them to call)
2. raise, which gives them 9:2 to call (very, very, icorrect for them to call)

If I know they will call either way, why wouldn't I raise? Seems like lost money to me.

I understand that by giving them incorrect odds on their draws is what is making me money, but recently I have been raising more often in places where I would typically be looking for overcallers and have still been getting them... and at a better price as well.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else feel that we should be trying to get as much money into the pot when we have the best chance to win and not really worry about our opponents pot/implied odds when they sure as all are not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably 90% of the time this value is the overriding consideration, and we raise when we think we have the best hand.

I think most of the hands where people think about this concept is when they're deciding to raise the flop (for value) or wait for the turn to raise (to protect their hand, but also for value ). Usually the bigger the pot the more you thinking about waiting to protect your hand, as their is more value in protecting the pot than in raising the flop. Hope that helps. I'd read SSHE as it explains this stuff really well.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
No, you are not being stupid at all. There are times when this actually is the best idea. There are times when it isn't. Maybe you could post some examples.

EDIT: The point of playing winning poker is to make other players make mistakes (while you don't make mistakes). Sometimes a raise or reraise can make them play correctly (folding) while a less agressive play (calling) may initiate a call they should not make. What they think is correct is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your edit hits a bit of what I was relating to... when I originally started this thread, it was mostly going to point out looking for overcalls. I derailed my own thread before I even posted it by moving out to more general ideas [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

If your holding the nuts or near nuts, and someone bets into me, many times I will raise even if there are 4-5 behind me and even if they may already have improper odds to call the one bet. This is VERY table specific at times and still worth it amny times, even if this sometimes risks me losing 3-4 BBs. Many players will call even if they are nearly drawing dead even with a raise. Shoot, many players call even if the KNOW they are only drawing to 2 outs. Many players do not comprehend what it is costing them in relation to the current pot, or in relation to EV.