A9 suited after a raise preflop, what's my line?

[Vee Quiva]

PokerStars 18 table sit n go. 30 something players left.
Here are chip stacks
1. 8930
2. 15725
3. 4185
4. 6634
5. 1691 this is me after ante and posting blind
6. 8460
7. 19635
8. 10118

Button is seat 3 so I am in big blind. Blinds are 100-200 with 25 ante.

Seat 7 opens and calls 200. Seat 1 makes it 1000. Folded to me in the big blind. I have Ace [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

No solid reads on the players except that I have not seen them out of line yet.

I realize that if I push, that seat 1 will come along because I don't have any fold equity there. I am short, but I just paid the big blind, so I can afford to be patient for at least a few more hands.

Does the stop and go make sense here?

[Dave D]

No, an sng won't work.

I would fold and wait for a better hand. It's close, but A9s just isn't good enough, and I think it's pretty obvious either the raiser or caller have you beat.

Given your stack size and such I would push because this might be the best hand you see but you cant sit and wait for the big PPs. Obviously a possibly better play would be to wait till you are the button and try to steal the blinds but I know I would view that as a short stack doing just that and would call with any two decent cards down to 89o and any pp. Seat 7 could be making some crazy slowplay trap with AA, KK or AK too but doubtful. Odds are Seat 7 has small pp and Seat 1 has QQ - TT and AK to AJs. I still say push since this guy could also have somthing like KQs as well in which you are ahead. Slight dog to most big dog to some and coinflip to small pps. Push.

[Solitare]

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Given your stack size and such I would push because this might be the best hand you see but you cant sit and wait for the big PPs.

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I see this reason given too often for going all-in with a short stack. I think it is very wrong.

With a short stack you are NOT looking for the best hand to push your stack. You are looking for the best CHANCE to win a hand.

Calling a raise with an A9s is not going to give you the best chance to win a hand.

Let's analyze the situation you give. Let's say Seat 7 will fold to the raise (which might not happen, but lets keep it simple.) The range you give for the raiser is QQ-TT, AKo, AJs+ and KQs. Against this range, A9s has only a 33% chance of winning (courtesy of PokerStove).

Now, I think Seat 1's range is bigger than that. He is on the button with more than 40x the BB. Let's say it is AA-77, ATo+, A7s, KQs, KQo. Against this range, you have only a 38% chance to win.

You will definately get better odds if you wait for the SB or BB.

Let's look at the SB, if it gets folded to you. Even if the BB knows you are going to push any two, he is definately going to fold 33% of his hands, and more likely up to 66% of his hands. Already, your odds of surviving the hand are better than the A9s call.

Of course, you could wake up with a killer hand. But you could also get a hand like K3o. At face value, a worse hand than A9s. But it has a better chance of winning against the BB than the A9s call.

Let's say the big blind will call with 70% of his hands, which I think is pretty loose. Already, your fold equity is 30%. When he does call, a K3o will win 46% of the time. So 70% * 46% is another 30% chance to win. So a K3o, if folded to you, has a 60% chance of winning. MUCH bigger than the 33-38% we calculated for the A9s call.

The button is not as good as the SB, but your fold equity here is probably somewhere between 20-30% even if the SB and BB know you are pushing any two. Combine that with the 30% or so chance that any two cards will win against a SB or BB call (its rare that both will call), and you still get a winning chance bigger than the A9s.

PLUS, the stack of 1600 is not in a super desparate situation. It can go another orbit before going below 5X the BB. So you have another 10 hands or so to wake up with a really good hand.

All this adds up to waiting for a better chance to go all-in, rather than calling with A9s.

In general, when short stacked in the 5-10xBB range, you are MUCH better off raising with garbage from the CO or later than you are calling a raise with a decent, but easily dominated, hand.