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  #11  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:14 AM
LoaferGee12 LoaferGee12 is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't a rhetorical question...why did you raise?

Didn't mean to sound like a smartass just don't understand why you'd raise that flop, unless its for value. I have trouble with that concept sometimes so I'd be happy to hear an explanation.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Free card. As long as he knows the BB as a passive player (monkey), then this play is fine. Without a strong draw (FD or OESD) I'm not making this play against an unknown.
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  #12  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:18 AM
Vote4Pedro Vote4Pedro is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

I discussed my reasons already somewhere in here...but seriously, why not raise?
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  #13  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:19 AM
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

Gotcha, I didn't really think gutshots were strong enough to make that move with, thats why I was confused. I guess you get ~10:1 after making the flop raise and a turn freeroll, rather than 12:1 on the flop and 6-7:1 when he bets the turn, eh?

Steve
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  #14  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:20 AM
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

*grunch*
I'd bet for a free showdown. Against weak opponents it is possible for one of them to have an ace but not necessarily so. If you are behind, you have 6 outs to improve. I would bet the turn and fold to a check-raise. Reevaluate the river. maybe you hit.
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  #15  
Old 11-21-2005, 04:50 AM
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

At first I thought this flop raise stunk big time... I need some help with the maths, if anyone can help me out, but I'll give it a go.

The only reason you would make this raise is for the free card.
With the GS draw to the nuts and the BDFD we assign roughly 20% equity (for ease) to Hero's holding.

EV of raising = (.2*14.5sb) - 2 = .9
EV of calling = (.2*10.5sb) - 1 = 1.1

So calling is .2sb or .1BB better. But that doesn't factor the free card.
If you don't make your hand on the turn, Hero's equity drops to about 11%. So, if you get your free card, the Villians grant you your 11% equity for free.
ie. (.11*7.25BB) = .79BB
<font color="green">
So, Hero only needs to be 13% sure of getting the free card to make this raise correct.</font>
ie. EV(calling)-EV(raising)/free card EV = .1/.79 = .13 = 13%

BUT... this makes a few assumptions.
1. that everyone calls your raise on the flop.
2. That you're not 3bet on the flop.
3. you wouldn't have got the free card anyway.
4. <font color="red">BB would not have fired again on the turn when you made your hand.</font>

This last one is the most important.
11% of the time, Hero will make his (nut str8)hand on the turn. Giving him ~95% equity of bets going in.
If BB would have fired again on the turn, had Hero not raised, Hero has cost himself 95% of between 2 and 16BB. If we assign a reasonable figure of 6BB -
.95*6BB = 5.7BB

Hero costs himself 5.7BB 11% of the time = .627BB.

If you factor this into the flop call EV calculation.

EV(calling)-EV(raising)/free card = (.1+.627)-.79 = .92

You now have to be 92%sure that you will get the free card.

There is definitely a greater than 8% chance that villians will improve on the turn and deny you the free card.

<font color="purple"> Overall making this play -EV.</font>

If you factor in the amount of times that you get 3bet on the flop AND don't get your free card it's a pretty easy call.


Seeing as you raised......TAKE THE FREE CARD.

<font color="blue">I found this play very interesting and it definitely doesn't stink as much as I first thought. Something I wouldn't have thought of doing, but against the right opponents, it may be a good way to mix up your play. </font>
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  #16  
Old 11-21-2005, 07:30 AM
lautzutao lautzutao is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

Generally middle pair no kicker isn't a good hand against monkeys.

No problem with the flop raise though, but check the turn...you weren't seriously raising in the hopes of picking up a 9 were you? You're not folding out an Ace...
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  #17  
Old 11-21-2005, 07:52 AM
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

Id fold this on the flop. I really only see 4 outs and your really not getting the odds to call let alone 3bet.
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  #18  
Old 11-21-2005, 08:32 AM
sean c sean c is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

[ QUOTE ]
I discussed my reasons already somewhere in here...but seriously, why not raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Pedro i don't like the flop raise.

1) you open yourself up to a 3-bet
2) you don't have an equity edge
3) you don't have any overcards
4) against monkeys getting your free card is 50/50
5) you miss the opportunity to raise the turn if you do hit your gutshot
6) you very well may have recieved a free turn card without raising

Anyway those are my thoughts i don't think the raise is terrible but for the reasons given i would prefer to call. I know you want to see a river card against these monkeys i would also but i think your hand is just a little to weak and the pot a little to small to be raising here.

As played i would bet the turn like 100% of the time.
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  #19  
Old 11-21-2005, 08:43 AM
adsman adsman is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

I think the turn is intersting. I like checking behind here. The reason is that typical monkeys will think that you whiffed and bet into you on the river. So if a 6,8 or 9 falls you can raise them and hopefully collect two bets from each of them. If you don't improve and they bet into you, then you can either fold or call. It only costs you 1BB. But if you bet the turn and they call and THEY improve on the river, then that is going to cost you a little bit more.
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  #20  
Old 11-21-2005, 10:14 AM
sean c sean c is offline
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Default Re: Free Card or Fire Away?

Hey Pedro here is a similar play i made at a party table. I posted this hand in ss quite awhile back(probably 2 or 3 months ago) and am to lazy to search for it but no one liked my flop raise here either. This is from memory and it's been awile but this is how i remember it.

Party 2/4 both villians are loose passive monkeys.

Pre flop: folded to me on a late position i raised K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], sb called and bb called.

Flop(3 players 6sb): AAQ one spade
SB checks, bb bets, i raise, sb cold calls and bb calls.

Turn(3 players 6bb): off suit J
checks around

River(3 players 6bb): 10
SB bets, bb folds, i raise and sb calls.

MHIG sb flips a weak ace. I really liked the way i played the hand at first glance but looking back i probably should have been 3-bet on the flop or at least bet into on the turn. Anyway your hand just reminded me of this one so i thought i would post it. I am sure you could dig this one up if you wanted to read the replies to it.
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