Out of line line with AJs in blinds?

[olavfo]

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SSHE states, and it has been reiterated on this board, that building the pot is not always the correct way to play a draw, especially if you have additional over cards that win you the pot. My hand is strong here I don't see any reason to play it as you have stated.

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You have 12 outs to the nuts and about 45% pot equity on the flop. A perfect spot to build the pot, with huge equity and many potential callers.

I would bet the flop, hoping button would raise and trap the field. Check-call the turn, since you're most often behind (try putting Button on a range of hands and estimate how many of them you can beat. It's not many.) and since your chance of picking up the pot with a bet is very slim.

[SeaEagle]

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There is nothing wrong with betting this turn. It is a break even bet if we have two callers and if all three call (which is fair likely) betting is +EV.


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The very best case is that hero has over 25% equity and all 3 people call, which is slightly +EV. Hero does not have 33% equity so if only 2 people call, the bet is -EV. And there are times when hero doesn't have 25% equity.

And if UTG raises and both people fold (worse case) the bet is downright painful.

Overall, this bet is -EV. Maybe not hugely so, but still -EV.