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#11
10-31-2005, 03:19 AM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
This is a classic example of using the probable bettor to your advantage. The PF raiser is on your right, so you want to bet out and let everyone call one bet before it gets raised. Then you can build the pot without making anyone face two bets cold. You have enough equity to build here, so extract the bets slowly, and it will be less painful for your opponents.
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#12
10-31-2005, 12:46 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
SSHE states, and it has been reiterated on this board, that building the pot is not always the correct way to play a draw, especially if you have additional over cards that win you the pot. My hand is strong here I don't see any reason to play it as you have stated.
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#13
10-31-2005, 12:58 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
SSHE states, and it has been reiterated on this board, that building the pot is not always the correct way to play a draw, especially if you have additional over cards that win you the pot. My hand is strong here I don't see any reason to play it as you have stated. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but this is a case for pot building. You have twelve outs to the nuts. The extra value of the A outs is probably not enough to merit forgoing a ton of flop bets when you have tons of equity. Note that your As are good a lot of the time anyway, and when they are not, its usually because they are reverse-dominated by hands that are going to be unlikely to fold anyway (AQ and to a lesser degree AT).
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#14
10-31-2005, 01:11 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
Bet the flop. You were really lucky that UTG bet out here and let you hook a lot of people. C/ring and facing people with multiple bets won't get anybody to fold that you want to fold.
Check the turn. Again, you're not folding anyone you want to fold. You have about 25% equity in the pot and you'll get 2 callers at best, so you are losing money with your bet and any subsequent raises.
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#15
10-31-2005, 02:06 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
Regarding the river play:
IF you check call on the turn, I think you MUST donk the river. Even the dumbest 2-4 players can put you on a diamond draw here. Most won't value bet top pair/overpair here because they are scared of the diamond draw possibility.
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#16
10-31-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
SSHE states, and it has been reiterated on this board, that building the pot is not always the correct way to play a draw, especially if you have additional over cards that win you the pot. My hand is strong here I don't see any reason to play it as you have stated. [/ QUOTE ] You can actually work out what the best play is here. You have about 1/3 equity on the flop, assuming a flush is the only way to win. So your share of the pot after the extra 8 SB is put in is 5.5 SB. If you could somehow get it heads up by check-raising, and you were sure this cleaned up your overcard outs, then you might gain at the absolute maximum 3 outs (assuming you aren't against AQ or something), which would increase your share of the now only 12.5 SB pot to 5.7 SB. Given the flop raise I don't think you can count your Js as outs. I think a realistic count would be maybe 0.5 for the Js and 1.5 for the As. So protecting is only slightly profitable in the most optimistic situation. It also carries the additional downside that you have lost the two folks on the flop that might have padded the pot on the turn making your flush draw even more profitable on later streets. Edit: I can see why you played it that way, but this is one of those borderline cases where taking down the pot now is not quite as profitable as building it, IMRC (im my rough calculation). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#17
10-31-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
If you could somehow get it heads up by check-raising, and you were sure this cleaned up your overcard outs, then you might gain at the absolute maximum 3 outs (assuming you aren't against AQ or something), which would increase your share of the now only 12.5 SB pot to 5.7 SB. Given the flop raise I don't think you can count your Js as outs. I think a realistic count would be maybe 0.5 for the Js and 1.5 for the As. [/ QUOTE ] There aren't any A outs to buy. Only the button is a candidate for AK and he's not folding. AQ isn't folding. All the other Ax are lower kickers. I suppose there's an outside chance that A7 is folding but unlikely. So, facing the field w/ 2 bets and forcing people to fold doesn't do anything but decrease the number implied bets for when hero hits.
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#19
10-31-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
There aren't any A outs to buy. Only the button is a candidate for AK and he's not folding. AQ isn't folding. All the other Ax are lower kickers. I suppose there's an outside chance that A7 is folding but unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] That's why I said it was the most optimistic situation. I think A is about 1.5 outs because you might be splitting with another AJ that you can fold here, and sometimes you can fold a black AK.
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#20
10-31-2005, 04:49 PM
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Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
I normally don't bet the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] There is nothing wrong with betting this turn. It is a break even bet if we have two callers and if all three call (which is fair likely) betting is +EV.
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