Am I missing something???

[Big Dave D]

My form in NLHE comps on Stars is currently abysmal, and as such Im starting to wonder if I can tell my arse from my elbow! What would you do...

You are in the $75 small blind with a $4900 stack. Everyone passes to a semi-aggressive player in the cutoff who moves $3650 allin into a $450 pot. The button passes.

You clearly think he may be stealing, to over bet the pot so much, but what range of hands do you call him with?

Results later.

cheers

Dave

[DaNoob]

I would only call with a premium hand: AA-TT + AK, AQs, AJs, KQs-JTs. Otherwise, to me at least, I don't think it's worth taking the risk for a 450 pot.

[alieneyes]

He may be stealing, but the pot is offering barely 1-1 and its risking a lot of your stack, so unless I look down at AA or KK I doubt I'm calling. This of course assumes its a one-off. If he's doing this frequently (like any time its folded to him in LP) then I'll probably add a few more hands. If he's only semi-agressive and he's moving all in, it doesn't sound like a total steal though.

[cferejohn]

"I would only call with a premium hand: AA-TT + AK, AQs, AJs, KQs-JTs. Otherwise, to me at least, I don't think it's worth taking the risk for a 450 pot."

I'm not even sure I would call with that many hands against a stack nearly as big as mine unless he was going all-in every 4 or 5 hands. For a stack that big, I'd probably stick to QQ-AA. If he was routinely going in, then fine. I always try to avoid 50/50 propositions (i.e. overcards vs. pocket pair) against stacks close to or larger than mine, especially when I will be calling a raise (rather than raising all-in myself).

[2ndGoat]

if he hasn't done this before, I think AA-QQ/AK. I think there's a type of opponent out there who doesn't do this too often, but still does it with AA-TT, AK-AQ, and feasibly AJ or just AJs, maybe 99 too.

If he's doing this at least once per orbit or something, I add JJ and AQ. If he's nuts, TT and AJ. No sense going worse than that, he'll keep doing it and you'll have other chaces to get your money in better (yes someone else will probably bust him first, but there's still a good shot he'll run into you at the wrong time).

I *would* rather avoid conflips, but frankly, if avoid playing a hand because you don't like coinflips, you may be sitting on two hands (AA/KK) that you'll pick up less than one time in 100, and he's getting odds to steal from you with any two cards, given he still has at least 20% shot when you do catch him. (assuming you're the only one in the way... oversimplification of course)

2ndGoat

[cferejohn]

"I *would* rather avoid conflips, but frankly, if avoid playing a hand because you don't like coinflips, you may be sitting on two hands (AA/KK) that you'll pick up less than one time in 100, and he's getting odds to steal from you with any two cards, given he still has at least 20% shot when you do catch him. (assuming you're the only one in the way... oversimplification of course)"

Let me amend/clarify my former statement about coinflips by saying that I am *much* more willing to get into a perceived coinflip situation when I am the one going all-in, since then I have ~50% + (whatever chance he will fold to an all in raise)% to win.

Obviously, when you are short-stacked its a different story, and you're lucky to get a hand that you feel like is a 50% chance to win. Obviously, you'd still rather be the one to move in your chips first, but at that point you gotta take what you can get.

Also, I was assuming (perhaps wrongly) that the table was full or close to it, given that the blinds were still relatively low. If this is a 3 or 4 handed table, what I would call with would loosen considerably (still not AQ or AJ though unless this guy was going all-in constantly).

[DaNoob]

"Let me amend/clarify my former statement about coinflips by saying that I am *much* more willing to get into a perceived coinflip situation when I am the one going all-in, since then I have ~50% + (whatever chance he will fold to an all in raise)% to win."

I don't think I had ever considered the all-in raise/call in this light. Thanks for the insight - it actually slightly validates my kamikaze style. Very good stuff....

[Simon Diamond]

Kamikaze style... I like that, might use that to refer to my style of play sometimes [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Good to see you here Big Dave D, what happened in the hand in question then? You know the real answer to this story as well - stick to Omaha mate [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

Simon

[Big Dave D]

I actually twisted things round a little to see what people's views would be. All the data is correct, but I was the semi-aggressive all-in-er, and I wanted to get a view as to what others would call in that spot, as I was so surprised when I was actually called. My actual hand was 44. The player in the small blind who actually called is Alex1, the 3rd highest ranking tourney player on PokerStars this year.
First, I should explain the all-in...as I am not a big fan of moving in so much in a fairly small pot if I can help it, as it can be a "bet of death" when called, i.e. you are a massive underdog. However Alex1 is very aggressive and I knew he would reraise with a very wide range of hands, making me release the small pocket pair. I felt that the allin would force him to drop nearly all his weaker hands.

When he thought for a few seconds, then called, I assumed he had a monster. In actual fact he had called with A8 suited (needless to say he won.)

I simply couldnt get over the call. My play is borderline questionable but I think that the overcall is simply terrible - he can only be a favourite over a tiny % of hands that I would make this move with, i.e. A baby or KQ. I couldn't ever think of a circumstance, in B&M play, where I would have made a similar call. And yet this is one of the "best" players on Stars.

Am I still missing something?
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[ohkanada]

I would say both the raise and the call are awful.

With the raise it is very unlikely you will get called by worse hands. Depending on the price of the tourney, the likelyhood of getting called probably goes up as the price is cheaper.

The call is terrible unless the raiser has shown that he only does this with tiny pairs. The likelyhood that A8s is dominated is very high.

I have seen the monster overbet pre-flop from players with small pairs, AK and even KK/QQ/JJ. Obviously he had you pegged as a small pair type otherwiese the call is even worse. Is this your 1st time venturing into the massive overbet pre-flop? If you have done this a few times in a short period, you will also get called more often.

Ken Poklitar