missing value bets for a free showdown

[skoal2k4]

sb is 68%/6%/1.65 over 90 hands

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

ok... I'm pretty sure I should be betting that river. Lately I've been taking the free showdown and the thing is, I don't feel the least bit bad about it... How much am I screwing myself here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[cold_cash]

What range of hands are you putting this guy on at the river?

[@bsolute_luck]

umm...not sure, but after he caps preflop and 3-bets us on the flop, i probably wouldn't have capped, but called down.

[istewart]

Strange hand. I think you overplayed the flop. This guy doesn't raise that much and he capped preflop in the worst position possible, and then proceeded to 3-bet the flop. Jacks are not good enough to cap here, and you can possibly find a fold, although with so few hands I am tempted to call it down.

[skoal2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands are you putting this guy on at the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

High overcards with the flush draw (AK, KJ, KT, AT, AJ all hearts) 99,TT,AA,KK

my thinking wrong here?

[MrWookie47]

At 6% PFR, I'm thinking AA-JJ, AKs once he caps, and including AKs and the other JJ in that list is somewhat optimistic.

Edit: Raising the flop isn't too bad, but I might even be inclined to just call down from the get-go. There's no way I'm capping that flop against this guy. I think you got showed a scared KK.

[skoal2k4]

you and istewart pretty much said the same thing... don't cap the flop... what hands are you capping this flop with? (if any)

[crownjules]

I'd also call the flop 3-bet after the action. I'd cap the flop if I were holding AA/KK and see where it goes from there.

[AngelicPenguin]

Why cap the flop? At 6%, isn't his capping hands probably just JJ+ and AK? With you holding JJ, and he capping the flop, AK seems unlikely. Aren't you behind here more often than not? Am I under valueing my overpairs because I would just call down after he 3-bet the flop (even that seems -EV)

[bozlax]

Against a player with those stats, and the way this went? AA. Maybe KK, but I doubt it.