KQs Overplayed?

josh1122 · #1 07-02-2005, 08:59 PM

No reads. First orbit. Table so far had a lot of loose calling preflop and postflop.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (15.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

River: (31.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP folds, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 40.70 BB

I'm pretty sure I spewed here at least on the turn. But with 3 others in the pot, can't I still raise for value?

EDIT: Anybody just call the river?

baronzeus · #2 07-02-2005, 09:03 PM

Why were you capping the turn? Just call his bet and raise a diamond, K, or Q on the river. He'll probably show AJ or QQ half the time, and he'll show JJ or 77 the other half.

I think you have equity to raise with the overcaller in the pot.

Another point...
Wow.

A 40BB pot. THat's effing huge. I hope you won.

bds · #3 07-02-2005, 09:20 PM

I agree with calling the turn. You don't have anything at that point and want to keep players in the pot if your flush should come. 9 of 47 cards likely make you a winning hand, though with the extent of the action, you have to be worried about a made flush or an A high flush draw out there. The likelihood of pairing the K or Q and having a winning hand is slim given the action so far. Looks like theh odds of a diamond coming are a little 9/38 or a little more than 1/4. You can only raise for value, I think, if you don't lose customers by raising. You didn't lose any, but I think that's the exception, not the rule. So, combine the lack of odds if everyone doesn't call and the fact that your hand might not be best even if a diamond comes, and I think call the turn and go to war on a diamond river is a better plan.

clownshoes · #4 07-02-2005, 09:24 PM

The turn raise/cap is really bad
As is the river raise given how everything played out

josh1122 · #5 07-02-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like theh odds of a diamond coming are a little 9/38 or a little more than 1/4. You can only raise for value, I think,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the exact reason I raised/capped the turn, I thought it was for value with 3 others in the hand the whole way. With any less I would have called. Is this not a value raise given the odds? This is probably a lesson I should have learned in the micros but I never really bothered.

aba20 · #6 07-02-2005, 09:47 PM

Your assumption might be correct if you had Axs, but even when you make your hand someone could have the nut flush. Even though this doesn't occur often that fact combined with the opponents droping doesn't give you correct odds. It is very likely that one of the other two had the nut flush draw the way the hand played out, or even two other small diamonds cutting your odds to 7/46 instead of 9/46 on the turn.

baronzeus · #7 07-02-2005, 09:47 PM

Based on how strongly UTG feels about this hand, I actually don't consider the K or Q outs, nor 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You're probably 1 in 7 here, which is enough to call, but not enough to raise.

josh1122 · #8 07-02-2005, 09:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on how strongly UTG feels about this hand, I actually don't consider the K or Q outs, nor 2 or 8 . You're probably 1 in 7 here, which is enough to call, but not enough to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There it is, thanks. For the results oriented, UTG had 77 and CO had Adxd and MHING, not to mention drawing dead.