Flush draw on flop

[Al P]

I'm in MP but last to act with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, EP calls, Hero?

[pokerrookie]

I say call. Your flush may not be best, and you have no overcards. If you had an A, raise on the strength of the nut flush, with a K raise on the potential of a draw to an overpair, in addition to flush.

But another question, with only 3 players, why didnt you fold preflop?

[Al P]

I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[droolie]

This is an easy raise.

You have two callers and a 35% edge in equity. You might get a free card on the turn if you need it. You have to assume that your flush will win here.

[meep_42]

Raise. If one folds, fine. If neither folds, even better.
You may get a free card on the turn, you may get a chance to take it down UI on the turn if it gets heads up.

-d

[Al P]

I think it's extremely close in situations like this.

We're contributing 33% of the chips and expect to get back 35%. I agree.

Assuming our flush wins here 100% of the time is foolish.

Our flushes don't hold up 100% of the time do they? Let's say they win 90% (someone with a large PT db can find a more accurate number on completed hands).

There goes our equity edge.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's extremely close in situations like this.

We're contributing 33% of the chips and expect to get back 35%. I agree.

Assuming our flush wins here 100% of the time is foolish.

Our flushes don't hold up 100% of the time do they? Let's say they win 90% (someone with a large PT db can find a more accurate number on completed hands).

There goes our equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your flush will not always win but you should play with a high desgree of confidence that when your flush comes in you will win the hand. You have a slim equity edge that factors in the times when your flush loses. The reason why this is not close is the free card element. Not raising here is bad.

[bottomset]

the ability to get free cards, and possibly win UI easily cover the sml % of times you complete but don't win

[DeathDonkey]

Easy raise, not close like some are saying. I get free cards all day at 0.50/1 on the turn in situations like this.

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy raise.

You have two callers and a 35% edge in equity. You might get a free card on the turn if you need it. You have to assume that your flush will win here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponents are passive, a raise is fine. If they are aggressive, a call is better.

I'm a bit confused about quite a few things, though: you are in MP but last to act -- so you limped in MP with 76s after one limper?

You're 1.9:1 to hit your flush by the river, so you are getting a slight overlay against two callers. However, your flush won't win this quite 1.9:1 times (you'll hit running spades ~3.5% of the time and be up against two pair occasionally -- which has a 4-out redraw against your 9 outer), so the equity edge you have here isn't as great as people would like to make it out to be.

If you're very likely to not get 3-bet and the pot is only 3-handed (so you can't encourage other callers here), then raising is fine.

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

Hand 1: 30.2757 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 38.4043 % [ 00.34 00.04 ] { 22, KTs, QJs, JTs-J2s, KTo, QJo-Q2o }
Hand 3: 31.3200 % [ 00.27 00.04 ] { KTs, JTs-J3s, KJo-KTo, QTo-Q2o }

Rob