An exampel why small sampelsize can´t tell your true BB/100

Siingo · #1 01-25-2005, 06:58 PM

I have played at party but have now opend a account at Empire too.

After 30791 hands at 3/6 at party is my BB/100 3.85...

After 8901 hands at 3/6 at Empire is my BB/100 0.09...

Either have I lost all my skill in one day, Empire is rigged, I had been lucky in 30K hands or the sampelsize is to small (both at party and Empire I think)... I bet on the sampelsize option!!!

Hehe I am glad that I am on + at Empire now! The first thing I did at Empire was to hit a 150BB downswing [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] !!!

So do not care so much about your BB/100 if you have a small sampelsize..

Have fun! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

imported_stealthcow · #2 01-25-2005, 09:22 PM

are you 6 or 8 tabling now? or did you just decide to go from party to empire?

i dont consider it possible for either party or empire to be rigged and i know 10k hand downswings are certainly possible.

MicroBob · #3 01-25-2005, 09:34 PM

Pretty sure OP was joking when he said it was rigged.

He's just showing the swings that are possible from one stretch of 10k hands to the next and understands that it's part of variance.
He says he suffered +150BB downswing after signing-up at empire...thus the reason the numbers are so different on the 'new' site.

Siingo · #4 01-26-2005, 01:55 AM

No I just play 4 tables but I will probably try 5 or 6 some day [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. The reason was becaus of that I wanted a new affiliate..

And no I do not belive it is rigged either. Especilly since I play against the same players as I played against at Party [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

PokerAce · #5 01-26-2005, 09:25 AM

With a BB/100 on Party of 3.85, I'm wondering if this 150 BB downswing is your first significant downswing?

Wait until you hit your first 250+ BB downswing. Those things really hurt your BB/100 number.

cpk · #6 01-26-2005, 11:55 AM

I just hit a 200BB downswing in B&M play. Ouch.

cpk · #7 01-26-2005, 11:57 AM

BB/100 is totally dominated by game selection. If you are unable to find the juicy games, you simply will not reach 2 BB/100. Period. Much less 3 and 4 BB/100. If you play in games that are 17/10, you will be lucky to make 1 BB/100. Catching a run of crappy cards simply magnifies this effect, because you lose more on your bad hands and don't win as much on your good ones. It's the ultimate double whammy.

So make sure your game selection is good.

Perseus · #8 01-26-2005, 01:39 PM

I can't believe it, I was gonna make this exact post later on tonight. I thought about doing it last night but I was too tired.

I have pretty much the same results as you, only my 35K at Empire is at 2.9BB/100 and my 6,000 at Party is almost exactly even.

I agree completely that this shows variance at it's best.