How often do Ace's hold up when they are the down cards?

[nuclear500]

Friendly home game on Monday night (that I happened to be dominating) where we play multiple Poker styles, but 7 card seems to be catching on more recently.

I'm dealt (AA)J and I look over at my two opponents and see a 4 up and a 8. I (naturally) raise out the betting and get the one caller, his next card is a 5 and again not fearing anything I bet out again and he raises me 2x so I put him all in (not a no limit game, but our max raise allowed me to do this to his short stack).

Needless to say he was going for a straight or flush and in the end my two Ace's held up.

I figured it was the best move, I knew my Ace's were good and I would rather get any guessing out of the way for the rest of the hand.

How do you guys think I played it? I think I played it perfectly considering his short stack and the fella's penchant for betting at pots with not a whole lot.

[Andy B]

You don't see too many no-limit stud games, but sure, get it all in with pocket Aces. That's what they do on TV.

[nef]

A four flush is often a favorite over a big pair on fourth street.

[Zaebos]

you can put in some of the hands he may of have been drawing to in here

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
but sure, get it all in with pocket Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you giving this advice? Dry Aces against a straight or flush draw on 4th isn't a favorite?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=448926
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ad jh 9c - 6s 7d 4h 5c
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 9c Ad Jh 248072 49.61 251928 50.39 0 0.00 0.496
6s 5c 7d 4h 251928 50.39 248072 49.61 0 0.00 0.504

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=448927
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ad jh 9c - qc tc 4c 5c
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 9c Ad Jh 240868 48.17 259132 51.83 0 0.00 0.482
Qc Tc 5c 4c 259132 51.83 240868 48.17 0 0.00 0.518

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you giving this advice?

[/ QUOTE ]

To annoy you.

Our hero raised all-in. This gave him the proverbial two chances to win--he could have bought the pot, or his hand could have held up. Assuming he made a pot-sized bet, if the other guy calls, he's getting roughly 2:1 on a coin flip. That's a nice overlay.

[Al Mirpuri]

Andy B, you seem to be thinking it was big bet poker. Nope, it was a limit game but the other guy had run his buyin down.

[Andy B]

Hey, whaddya know. Still, you're going to three-bet with pocket Aces about every time, right? You're not folding for one more bet. I'm curious as to what Dynasty thinks he should have done differently.

[timmer]

>> but sure, get it all in with pocket Aces.

>Why are you giving this advice? Dry Aces against a straight or flush draw on 4th isn't a favorite?


Sure in a best/worst case senario they are in a coin flip on 4th.

However the facts are that the straight has 8 outs and the flush has 9.(other that trip outs which still may lose you the pot) Unless you hit one of them you have to hit your hand twice and the A's have to remain unimproved. Even if the A's remain uninproved you have to hit your hand to win. This is why you need overcards in your draws to play them heads up. another problem is if you do make the straigh or flush you will pay off dearly when the A's tap into a full boat.

If the Aces takes even one of your straight or flush outs your in a Lag. If probability serves, some of your str8 or flush outs are holed up somewhere or in the muck and you are now dogging it. Your either A slim fav or a pretty big dog not a good place to go all in or call an all in bet.

We Know this is because you cannot extract any more or enough bets from your opponent to over come the times where you are a dog and dont make enough from your slim avdantage here when your not.

Also Dont use fantasy sims to support weak positions. use realistic ones. make at least 15% of the dead hole cards either a dead str8 or flush out and you have a much more realistic simulation.

If you do this you will present a much more realistic overveiw.

plus cut the jetsam from your 2 dimes C&P's they are hard to read unless you go to the reply with Quote applett.

Just my few cents

timmer

[Nick_Foxx]

what a brilliant play, i guess we'll see you at the final table of the stud world championship next year

mike