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#1
11-11-2005, 03:42 PM
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VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
hello everyone-
i moved up to $50 nl sh at party about 2 months ago and over my first 50k hands i've been up 12 ptbb/100 (not sure if i've been running good, but i think this is an attainable long-term winrate given the quality of play here). since last night, over ~3k hands, i've dropped 12 buy-ins. now this isn't a bitch post, and here's where i could use some advice. i usually pick tables based on avg pot size, selecting only the tables with the biggest avg pots ($20+) at this level. recently it's occurred to me that there are at least 2 lag maniacs at each table i sit down at though, particulary at night when they're probably drunk which exacerbates the situation. i realize that in the long-run this is a great position for me to be in, but it just seems like in the short-run this can make the variance obscene. i also like to use position and bluff with my overs with about a 60-70% pot size bet if it gets checked to me and while this works at tables with smaller pot sizes, it just seems like chip-spewing at these tables where someone will call regardless. i'm looking for more of a slow and steady income (it's a supplement for me since i'm a college student) and i'm think ing the variance at these tables might just be too much. i'm thinking of limiting my play to tables with avg pot sizes between $10-13 so i can hopefully match up against a bunch of lp's rather than all maniacs. i can handle one lag, it just seems like 2 at a sh nl table might be too much. if anyone has any advice on my plan or could share their own experiences with variance at this level i would really appreciate it. thank you! 
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#3
11-11-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
[ QUOTE ]
not sure if i've been running good [/ QUOTE ] yes, you have
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#4
11-11-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
well, you seem to have answered your own question.
if you're at a table with 2 LAGskies, then continuation-bluffing your overs won't be as effective. and i think your variance sounds within reason, if rare. It might have been worsened by some tiltage. judging by your 2+2 name and my brilliance, i'm guessing you're down the street at UNC. that may be your problem from the start... : ) gl man J Chap
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#6
11-11-2005, 05:00 PM
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Re: VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] not sure if i've been running good [/ QUOTE ] yes, you have [/ QUOTE ] what's a sustainable winrate here? [/ QUOTE ] 12ptbb/100 is sustainable at this level.
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#8
11-11-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
[ QUOTE ]
also, if anyone could give me any general tips on how to play at tables with 2+ maniacs i'd appreciate it [/ QUOTE ] wouldn't the best plan be to wait until you've got a made hand and stack them?
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#10
11-11-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: VARIANCE at Party $50NL SH?
[ QUOTE ]
12ptbb/100 is sustainable at this level. thanks for your response. also, if anyone could give me any general tips on how to play at tables with 2+ maniacs i'd appreciate it [/ QUOTE ] The key here in my opinion, is not to fall in love with marginal hands on the flop. (eg. TPTK, or even two pair depending on the board. Granted, yes they are strong, and very well may be the best hand, but if a LAg is willing to throw his stack in against you after you raise/3bet, odds are he has you.) It goes without saying that you should be playing top hands preflop so that you're getting in there with the best of it, but an important point is to realize that LAgs can hold practically anything on the flop. Basically, you have to pick your spots, and make sure that you capitalize on them as best as you can. The strategy of a decent LAg is to put pressure on the weak, but know where and when to cut their losses. So a frequent anti-LAg strategy of mine is to wait until I flop a monster, feign weakness and check/call (or check/raise, depend on how much he bet or how willing he is to call) the flop AS LONG AS he's betting enough for him not have insufficient odds to outdraw me. (I don't know what others think of this strategy, but I have found it to be relatively effective.) Basically the purpose of this is to have the villain willingly throw a good amount of his stack in the pot so that it's hard for him to get away from on the turn or river, as a frequent weapon of theirs is the overbet. Basically don't mess with attempts to bluff if you know they're going to call you, and definitely, don't do anything fancy. I'll concede that I am no pro, and I welcome criticism of this post as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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