35s in BB - Page 2

olavfo · #11 10-31-2005, 11:41 AM

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I would bet the flop, chances are sb is trying to thin the field or had already given up on the hand, I think building the pot in this spot would be good

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Betting the flop would be -EV compared to checking since you have close to zero chance of winning the pot right there, and since you don't have enough outs to bet for value.

What you really want is a free card, but mathematically, checking and calling is the next best thing.

MitchL · #12 10-31-2005, 12:25 PM

I think getting 14 to 1 is plenty to make this a value bet. Not to mention the ridiculous implied odds. My intention is to make sure there is even more money put in on the flop. I.e If it gets checked through to MP3 who bets and button raises, then sb 3 bets then you have to fold, but if you bet and it is all the sudden three bets back to you you are in a different situation. This is a spot where the pot size can be manipulated in your favor. You are about as likely to get a free card in this spot as you are to pick up the pot by betting, so why not virtually ensure that you will have the correct odds to draw instead of hoping.

TheHammer24 · #13 10-31-2005, 12:38 PM

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Betting flop will fold noone that an expected bet from late position wont fold. Also I would expect that many will call even if it is raised and even if people get closed out you will gain as much if not more by being able to checkraise at least 2 people when you hit gutshot on the turn. You will be gaining those bets back and will have folded out or charged the marginal redraws to beat you. This is a plan that is used by many to accomplish many goals in one hand, You bet flop w/ gutshot trapping in dead money. If it gets raised you call and are now set to check raise turn which recovers what you lost by shutting out field on flop. Also betting flop manipulates the odds in your favor. Worst case scenario is that it is three bet back to you, but it is just like calling the original 2 bets cold, except w/ much better implied odds.

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You are invariably wrong in your assesment. OESD, FD, I can see betting the flop although it is not my preferred line. Lonely 4-outer, leading the flop into a big field in a huge pot is stupid.

TheHammer24 · #14 10-31-2005, 12:43 PM

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I think getting 14 to 1 is plenty to make this a value bet.Not to mention the ridiculous implied odds.

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That is not what a value bet is. A value bet is when people calling the bet gains you more profit. I have a ten percent chance of winning this pot assuming no one improves after i do. Thus for my bet to be for value I would need 11 people to call this bet.

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My intention is to make sure there is even more money put in on the flop. I.e If it gets checked through to MP3 who bets and button raises, then sb 3 bets then you have to fold, but if you bet and it is all the sudden three bets back to you you are in a different situation. This is a spot where the pot size can be manipulated in your favor.

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If putting three bets into this pot on the flop is EV- then betting and calling two is just as bad as calling three cold, do you see why?

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You are about as likely to get a free card in this spot as you are to pick up the pot by betting, so why not virtually ensure that you will have the correct odds to draw instead of hoping.

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0 chance of picking up pot or getting free card. Why would I want to ensure I see the turn if the odds may not be correct?

MitchL · #15 10-31-2005, 01:28 PM

U called 2 sbs to make 12bbs. In my example you would call 1 sb to make 14bbs, and I doubt sb tries to cr entire "trapped field." By not betting you let villain turn an easy call into a borderline one and allowed him to shut 2 players out of the pot who might have paid you off when you hit your card. I like my plan better. You lost value by check calling, so yes my bet is for value.

olavfo · #16 10-31-2005, 01:51 PM

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You lost value by check calling, so yes my bet is for value.

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Respectfully:

You seem confused about what a value bet is. I suggest you carefully read TheHammer24's previous post again (especially what he writes about the necessary number of callers for a bet to be for value).

Generally, if you have a drawing hand and your odds against improving to a winning hand are X : 1, you need at least X callers to bet for value.

Yes, if you check and there's a bet behind you and you call, betting and checking/calling cost the same, but you can't know that this will happen when it's your turn to act.

In this situation, with a hand that is not the best hand, with too few callers for a value bet and absolutely no chance of stealing the pot with a bluff, you should check, hope to get a free card, but call when it comes one or more bets back to you, provided the pot odds are sufficient. In this case, including implied odds, TheHammer24 had sufficient pot odds to call a bet and a raise.

TheHammer24 · #17 10-31-2005, 06:05 PM

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U called 2 sbs to make 12bbs. In my example you would call 1 sb to make 14bbs, and I doubt sb tries to cr entire "trapped field." By not betting you let villain turn an easy call into a borderline one and allowed him to shut 2 players out of the pot who might have paid you off when you hit your card. I like my plan better. You lost value by check calling, so yes my bet is for value.

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For a bet to be for value, you must have an equity edge. For instance, if I have 50%+ chance of winning a hand and it is HU, I should bet for value because I will will win more money than I lose. If i have a flush draw and there are 4 other people in the hand, I have 30% chance of winning. I earn 30% on each bet put in the pot. I lose .7 Bets on my investment and win .3 bets of every one who called my bet. 4*.3 = 1.2 bets. In this hand I have a ten percent chance of winning it. Therefore I earn .1 on every call. For htis to be plus EV, I would need ten plus callers, I do not have that in this hand so my bet cannot be for value.

However, I can use it to manipulate the actions of my opponents. In this hand, that is not a good idea. You propose betting so that I only have to pay 1 bet instead of two. That would not work. Only using this specific example, my bet would either lead to MP raising and SB c/r or MP calling and SB c/r. Either way I put 2 bets in on the flop and my odds are still the same than had I called two cold, as i did, after SB c/r. You need to look at effective odds here. If I want to take my draw to the turn, I have to pay 2 bets whether it's 2 at once or 1 at two separate occasions.