#11
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1196157 pokenum -h ah 4h - ks qs -- th jh as Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As Jh Th cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ah 4h 388 39.19 598 60.40 4 0.40 0.394 Ks Qs 598 60.40 388 39.19 4 0.40 0.606 He's not that big of an underdog. It sucks, but not a bad beat. |
#12
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
He asked what size the bet would have been to give the correct odds. That was the part I was answering with the implied odds part. Even when I am drunk, I know you can't get additional odds if you are all in.
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#13
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
To put some numbers behind this when it came time for him to call your all in bet there was 137 in the pot and he needed to call 110. This is pot odds of 1.25 to 1. Therefore he needs a win rate of 45% to make this call. If he saw your cards he would obviously fold. However he is left trying to figure out what you went all in with. Lets say he analyzed like this.
Bluff - 5 % chance 80% win rate Two Pair - 5% chance 35% win rate(has to hit his flush) Ace with high kicker - 60% chance 48% win rate(he can win if his flush hits or his kicker hits) Straight - 30% chance 35% win rate This comes out to a win rate of 45% a marginal call. If he thinks its more likely that you had a straight than this it was an obvious fold. In his perspective if he thought it was more likely that you had an ace and higher kicker his call was ok. Cobra |
#14
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
I don't understand the reasoning to waiting to get your money in. If you know you are 61:39 favorite and you know he will call, get the chump's money in the pot now. He isn't going to call a big bet with one card to go. Don't give him a free shot.
I can see an argument for slow-playing this hand a little. All-in for $110 is v aggressive given the size of the pot and you don't know for sure there is a flush draw out there. But you were favorite against any hand other than Kh Qh. No reason to just call here. |
#15
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
You're right that you don't know that a flush draw is out there, but you're only going to be called by that exact hand. Maybe two pair, but, more likely the flush draw. Why wait? There's a big difference to being a 61:39 favorite and a 81:19 favorite. Sure, the only way you're going to be beat is if someone outdraws on you, and they're more likely to do it with two cards to come than three.
I'm not saying the idiot was right to call the bet. OP made the guy pay to beat him and he did. He's just less likely to do it with only one card to come. |
#16
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
[ QUOTE ]
I know you're drunk, but there are no implied odds after you're all in. thanks [/ QUOTE ] lmao - reminds me of this one guy in an online game. He's on the button with trash and calls another guys all in. When I can't help but ask about his call he tells me "I had position on him"... |
#17
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Re: Is this considered a bad beat?
Definitely not a bad beat, just a risky call by your opponent(for the size of your raise) as he had top pair with nut flush draw, he was probably figuring you either had two pair or TPTK(for straight draw of course)
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