Turn Action: Donked by a Trickster

[Entity]

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Why not just pop villian on the turn for a raise? Looks like he would call it.

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This subject is very complicated. Let me give you an expert example on this topic.

You limp UTG with A8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the next guy raises. Three players coldcall and the BB makes it 3-bets. Everyone calls. Six to the flop for 18 SB.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks to you and you bet. UTG+1 raises. Everyone folds to the BB who makes it 3-bets. You cap and UTG+1 folds.

Turn (14 BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, You Call

River (16 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets, You raise, BB 3-bets and You fold


If you can understand this hand, you have this game down to a T. I'll give more thoughts on OP hand later. The main considerations are the villians ability to bluff and the pot size. As you can see though from the example I provided, hand reading is VERY important as well.

In the OP's hand, the villian's most likely holding is Jx. Is there any point in raising him if he does hold something like JT in a 5 BB pot?

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I wouldn't raise the river in your example. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

[fizzleboink]

djames I agree that it would take some serious nuts to fold the river for one bet. I'm not sure if I could do it in that spot, but a river 3-bet is pretty damn good sign of strength.

If he has KK-TT, the turn bet he put in is costing him money because he's only drawing to two outs. So even though you let him see the river card, you're still making +EV. If you raise, he folds, and you don't win any more.

Do you think he still has AK-AQ on a flop check-raise 3-bet? There's only 1 combo of AA, so you're looking at KK-TT most of the time, so you want to optimize your play for those hands.

[Vote4Pedro]

If you can't fold to the 3bet, you shouldnt be raising in the first place

[aces_dad]

You mean extremely unlikely here?

and it's extremely likely the villian has a better hand

Yes, a river 3-bet is an incredible sign of strength. I'm not debating whether the BB is strong given his river 3-bet.

I'm debating the turn check, which I don't like.

Given the turn check, I definitely hate the river raise if the Hero is going to fold to a 3-bet.

You're making your move after your redraw is gone. Make your move when your redraw is alive ... at the turn. Win the 15 big bets when you're ahead, win huge (18+) when your draw hits. Lose 0-2 bets less when you're crushed by AA (or ridiculous 87 or 77-55 .. while these are ridiculous holdings, only the PF move would have been maniacal).

You seem so worried about winning more (meaning 2-3 big bets more) ... why aren't you concerned about winning period (in this hand only please, not in general)? The pot pre-turn betting is already 14 big bets!!! His turn bet makes 15 ... raise to try and maximize your chances to win the pot right then (and proceed as indicated in my earlier post based on the BBs response)! Without a turn raise, you have no idea whether a turn call & a river raise is +EV. You could be way behind, and I still abhor the river raise with the intention of folding to a 3-bet.

No one likes the turn raise? I've only heard about the river action. If you hate the turn raise (in Shillx's hand and not the original hand starting this thread), Why?

[Shillx]

I'm sorry to hijack your thread Pedro, but the point was to show that it is sometimes better to just call in these spots even when the pot is large. This is a made up hand, but the only logical hand to give the BB is AA when he 3-bets the river.

The flop play is pretty interesting too. When you are up agiainst 2 PFR's, the chances are good then one of them holds A-big and the other a big pair. We bet the flop and hope that UTG+1 raises in order to force the BB's AK or AQ or whatever with 2 cold. Our A8 would really like to free up those 2 extra outs those times that UTG+1 has QQ or JJ or something. When the BB makes it 3-bets, it becomes apparent that he is on a big pair, and now we cap to see if UTG+1 will fold AK-AT if that he what he has. Obviously it won't always work, or you will run into two overpairs, but that is the idea. We have a good amount of equity with our straight draw, but we would really like an extra 2 outs in this huge pot.

Anyway, let's say that the BB is on AA-QQ when he cpas the flop. After we look at the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on 4th street, he is now a 12:1 favorite to have a worse hand then we do. Only the case AA can beat us, so we have to put a raise in somewhere. If we are going to do it, it should be on the river.

If we raise now and have the worst hand, we have pay 3 BB just to see if we can make our straight. If he does have KK or QQ then we risk losing him where he will be more inclined to payoff a river raise. If we raise now, he knows that he is going to have to put in another 2 BB to showdown. If we call now and raise the river, it is just one more BB to see what we have. It would be tough to resist when the river doesn't appear to help anyone. The BB doesn't know that we have an ace by the way we played this hand (we might have 88 or 99 or 87s) so figure that he would bet all of his hands on this 4th street card that probably didn't help us.

Brad

[DeathDonkey]

You know how people have been saying you overthink things? This is what they are talking about. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To OP: At 5/10 I would raise now, because they don't fold. If your villain will pay off with any pair, then raise now. Against a tougher opponent I agree waiting is better, but I still might raise the turn to cover the times I raise the turn with KQ high there.

-DeathDonkey

I'll take 1 out of 2.

Shill, you say we have to put a raise in somewhere, so when you say it only costs us 1 bet to see what we have on the river, that's not entirely true. Yes, only 1 bet has gone in before you see the card, but when it misses, you're going to raise anyway. That means you're putting three bets in regardless. So try to win the 15 bets on the turn when you may redraw against AA. In fact, if a 9 or 4 came on the river, there's a chance a "smart" BB would check anyway eliminating your guaranteed raise (of course I think that his check would be bad, but there's a chance it will happen).

Forgetting all of this ... who folds in micro-limit to a 21:1 showdown? I might even the BB could mis-click that 3-bet reraise 4.54% of the time!