Flush draw on flop

[Joe Tall]

This is simply untrue when put in the context of 2005 lo limit games such as found on Party.

What?!? Clark has probably played more LL poker than anyone of the forum, even in the last year.

It is not crazy to raise here. It's close either way.

It's not close and it's it's not crazy, it's stupid.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take your and Entity's word for it

You should really think about it for yourself. It's clear.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right the more and more I think (and read) about it.

[DMBFan23]

gimme one more caller and raising now has merit.

Pointing out the obvious again,
Kevin

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
gimme one more caller and raising now has merit.

Pointing out the obvious again,
Kevin

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when you get 3-bet. It's a CALL, people. You'll make more by closing the action with callers in front of you when you hit your draw than opening yourself up to a re-raise.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

[droolie]

This is probably one of the reasons why I'm losing $$ with all my non-broadway suited.

My biggest losers are T9s(0.34), 75s(0.31), 86s(0.24), 97s(0.24), 52s(0.22), 85s(0.18), 22(0.17).

[stir]

"Clark has probably played more LL poker than anyone of the forum, even in the last year"

That statement is nonsense, as is your characterization of a raise as "stupid".

Say what you will, I'm done responding.

[Joe Tall]

That statement is nonsense

You have no clue, trust me.

[DMBFan23]

Joe,

I think we talked about this issue one other time as well, but last time we had an Ace with our flush draw. Let me tell you what my thoughts on this are, and then you can tell me via PM, posting, or just not at all, why I'm wrong.

assumptions:
1) we're making out flush 35% of the time by the river.
2) no one is going to fold for one more small bet on the flop.
3) BB may 3 bet, say X% of the time.
4) some percentage of the limpers in between will fold when BB 3-bets, say Y% of them. none of them is going for a limp-cap.
5) if BB does not 3 bet, we get a free card.

I am thinking there is some amount of callers where the immediate overlay from raising and everyone calling gives enough +EV to counteract the combined effects of:

1) the chance of BB 3 betting, and callers folding. (X*Y)
2) the chance of a higher flush draw being out there (possibly not independant of BB's 3 bet).
3) the chance that BB will not bet the turn, or that callers will fold the turn when he bets but would have called my flop raise. (EDIT: assuming I hit my flush on the turn)

I always thought one other limper (so two in between me and BB) would give me the overlay to counteract these effects, especially given that BB doesn't often 3 bet, and if the turn gets bet people who came this far probably aren't going anywhere.

how many limpers do we need to get more value on the flop? or is there no number for you? I know asking for a specific number really isnt the point, so I guess I'm asking "is there a point at which the benefit from raising now outweighs the expected benefits of waiting?"



EDIT: also, how does

[ QUOTE ]
give me one more caller and raising now has merit

[/ QUOTE ]

not produce a situation similar to the following hand from SSH? (below there is a BD straight draw, granted)

[ QUOTE ]

Hand No. 3: You have the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. Three players limp in, you limp, the small blind calls, and the big blind checks. The flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving you a flush draw. The small blind checks. The big blind bets and two of the three limpers call. What should you do?

Book Answer: Raise. This is a turn problem, so the book provides no explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I swear I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm genuinely trying to understand the differences.

[Joe Tall]

I'm genuinely trying to understand the differences.

Flop consistancy, in the example you gave, our hero has a double backdoor staright draw, minimal but not neglectable.

5) if BB does not 3 bet, we get a free card.

Don't neglect the times he Stop-n-Goes. Also, don't forget the times we raise the turn/river and gain big bets.

how many limpers do we need to get more value on the flop? or is there no number for you? I know asking for a specific number really isnt the point, so I guess I'm asking "is there a point at which the benefit from raising now outweighs the expected benefits of waiting?"

This has been debated ad nauseum on this forum as you can imagine. Flop texture, table texture and opponent reads dominate over the close math situations, there is no 'magic' number really.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

[DMBFan23]

"This has been debated ad nauseum on this forum as you can imagine. "

Thanks Joe, that's what I had to hear. I also think it depends on the read of BB, although I like discussing it in the context of an unknown.