Is this EVER not a set?

[Goodie54]

I paid off and saw JJ, but that's not the point. You guys aren't seeing this correctly at all. There were FIVE pre-flop players. No way a decent player is checking behind last to act with top pair, any kicker, and for god's sake, AA KK? Are you kidding me? That would be suicide to check behind with five players in the pot. I could see heads up, but multiway, there's no way that player checks.

This almost has to be a monster. Now, that monster could be QJ, but I can't see how any other hand besides air checks the flop. And air certainly doesn't put a value bet out there on the river, air pushes on the river.

Peace

Goodie

[Riposte]

I think he could have AJ and you need to bet more on the turn and you have to call the river.

[Riposte]

Wait, so the villain was a decent player?

Maybe it's a leak in my game, but I'm never folding a set on an unpaired board with no straight or flush possibilities without a very good read on the opponent. Check/call is fine if you're really worried, but I just couldn't bring myself to fold here. You got exactly what you're looking for when playing a small pair, you hit a set and the board is about as un-scary as you could possibly hope for.

He didn't raise pf with JJ? While he got paid here, I have to think that long term with JJ limping is -EV.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
I paid off and saw JJ, but that's not the point. You guys aren't seeing this correctly at all. There were FIVE pre-flop players. No way a decent player is checking behind last to act with top pair, any kicker, and for god's sake, AA KK? Are you kidding me? That would be suicide to check behind with five players in the pot. I could see heads up, but multiway, there's no way that player checks.

This almost has to be a monster. Now, that monster could be QJ, but I can't see how any other hand besides air checks the flop. And air certainly doesn't put a value bet out there on the river, air pushes on the river.

Peace

Goodie

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things:

1. Villain's play of checking the flop with middle set against 5 opponents is debateable. Against 5 opponents, Villain must worry about the possibility of a straight on the turn if any A, any K, any T, and 9, or any 8 falls. Naturally, not all of these cards will make a straight, but against 5 opponents who have a collective 20 outs, I think the proper play would be to bet. Note: villain didn't make a drawing hand pay him off in this pot, he made another set pay him off. The check is a bad play. It is not surprising to me to read that other posters considered the possibility Villain might make a play like this with hands other than a set.

2. You got cold-decked.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't raise pf with JJ? While he got paid here, I have to think that long term with JJ limping is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Some people - some of them winning players - play Jacks for set value only. I don't get it either.

[Goodie54]

Check original post. "folded to pre-flop raiser, who makes it 15".