AA hand - MrWookie and I disagree

[LoaferGee12]

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Meh, SH.... he didnt say it was FR. Ok lets just pretend that the vil's hand ranges are JJ and KK 50-50 (even though I completely disagree, they definitely include TT 99 AQ and AJ to some degree, even the other AA but thats negligent).


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Given that villain capped PF and capped the flop, as well as led the turn and the river, how on earth do you give him a range of TT,99,AQ or AJ??

[Nfinity]

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Edit 2: had to mention this cause this hand really made me think and i really believe anyone that said call (because they fear JJ) has it wrong:

In second level thinking, that Q is a million times more of a scare card for KK than for JJ. When you are willing to CAP preflop, then more importantly CAP the flop assuming you arent totally unknown to him what cards does he put YOU on?

Overcards arent CAPPING. TT isnt CAPPING. You have shown you have a premium pair. AA KK QQ JJ (depending on what he has). I would even go as far as to say JJ is unlikely to be played this hard against so much aggression that we can rule its impact here as fairly low.

With JJ: That Q changes nothing. If you had QQ your still ahead. If you had KK or AA your still ahead. This is why it doesnt make sense at all to think that that Q would have scared him this much.

With KK: He had you 90% on AA or QQ providing you arent crazy. Before that Q came he had one of those hands beat and was losing to the other one. That Q sets you and even after he bets you STILL arent slowing down. Its a huge scare card because it puts him behind every hand he could possibly puts you on. He calls the turn praying you have JJ/AQ overplayed.

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This is wholly elaborate, really thought out, but almost extremely inapropriate for the limits we play. You have to understand that most of the time your opponents aren't exhibiting a first level base of thinking. The person who caps the flop with JJ isnt capping because of what you might hold or what his equity is, or because Sklansky told them too. If Sklansky said anything these guys ain't hearing it. He is capping because He has and OVERPAIR. And when he all of a sudden doesn't, it's not un-natural for that person to STOP capping. The same with KK as well. So said person most of the time would probably continue firing on that Turn.

I commend you for this analysis though, and it does have merit if a read is factored in ANYWHERE.

EDIT: If it makes you feel any better, I agree with you after finding out results, but still will argue my previous point vehemently. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Hmm... ok maybe i should be a bit more concise and explain myself a bit better.

The facts:

1. Villains likely hand range is JJ or KK.
2. KK is twice as likely as JJ (combinations).
3. A raise against JJ is twice as costly as a call against KK.

Thus: If you assume that the range is KK and JJ ONLY, and that each hand makes perfect sense from the villains perspective, then the raise and the call are dead even plays. (Note: Folding is ridiculous here).

What Im suggesting is that the other possible factors all lean towards you being ahead here:

1. From how the hand was played, KK is MORE likely to be played this way than JJ. The Q was MORE of a scare card for KK than for JJ given the second level analysis in my last post (Ah go skim it i know its long, the bit about the scare card rational is at the end haha).
2. The other MISPLAYED (by vil) hand possibilities that your ahead of are hands you are far more likely to be ahead of than behind. A8s and QQ are the only misplayed possibilities that you lose to. But: TT, 99, AJ, AQ and even AK are all hands that would and could regularly be shown here at this level.
3. The times where he has JJ and STILL fears your QQ and thus doesnt reraise this river OR has KK and still reraises decreases the 2bet mistake to at least 1.95, which is fairly substantial when dealing with a breakeven situation.

These factors push a breakeven situation in to a favourable place to race for the max +ev.

Please, feel free to rebut but I think way too many people just saw a guy slow down to a Q then bet out a J without really considering the actions before. Expect to raise this and get called by KK way more than 60% of the time in the long run against an unknown

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The same with KK as well. So said person most of the time would probably continue firing on that Turn.

I commend you for this analysis though, and it does have merit if a read is factored in ANYWHERE.

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You honestly think an average unknown player 3bets KK that turn against an opponent who isnt slowing down? Hell if he is that stupid he would probably be more scared of the 8, thinking that you capped it with A8. Seriously, so few players are that aggressive with KK that i dont think you can put the average unknown on it.

At least not at the tables where I play.

Scotty34 - What exactly was the limit and player numbers?

[Nfinity]

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The same with KK as well. So said person most of the time would probably continue firing on that Turn.

I commend you for this analysis though, and it does have merit if a read is factored in ANYWHERE.

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You honestly think an average unknown player 3bets KK that turn against an opponent who isnt slowing down? Hell if he is that stupid he would probably be more scared of the 8, thinking that you capped it with A8. Seriously, so few players are that aggressive with KK that i dont think you can put the average unknown on it.

At least not at the tables where I play.

Scotty34 - What exactly was the limit and player numbers?

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It was 3/6 6 max

It looked like this Pre-flop:

1 folds, 2 Raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, SB CAPS, BB folds, 2 folds, Hero Calls.

And it looks like an absolute hand so I would expect him to have too many PT reads at the time.

[Hojglad]

With all due respect, you are wrong about wanting to raise this river if you believe he has JJ and KK with equal probability, and those are the only two hands he can have.

Let's say he does have JJ and KK with equal probability (I don't necessarily agree with this). Consider what happens when you raise the river in both scenarios, each being equally likely.

He has JJ: He re-raises, you pay off like a donkey, you lose 3 big bets.

He has KK: He just calls, you win 2 big bets.

EV of river raise = 0.5*2 - 0.5*3 = -0.5BB.

Let's do something constructive and figure out when this river raise breaks even. Let's say he has JJ with probability p and KK with probability (1-p).

EV of river raise = 0 = (1-p)*2 - p*3
0 = 2 - 2p - 3p
0 = 2 - 5p
5p = 2 => p = 0.4

So, if he has JJ 40% of the time or less, you may raise this river.

FWIW, he has TT, 99 or AJ here like, never (unless he is Eeegah... then I assign him 99 with 99.5% probability). I consider AQ and AK very, very, very unlikely as well. That said, I consider KK to be his most likely hand here. Also, even though it's very unlikely, I give him a non-trivial chance to have the other pair of aces here as well.

When was the last time you cold capped from the small blind with JJ?

[britspin]

I initially liked the river call, but now I think KK is more likely than JJ.

Why? A flop cap, then slowing down a little when a Q comes suggest to me he fears QQ. If he has QQ, why not three-bet turn- you're bound to call and will call at river too.

So that leads me to JJ or KK. I lean towards KK more because of the flop action- would JJ really cap pre and flop?

So I think the river bet represnts the fact he has an overpair more often than it does the JJ set on this action.

That point was a mere hypothetical, that IF the way he had played perfectly represented KK and JJ, and was unable to represent any other hand, then the river WOULD be break even because:

JJ has 3 combinations, KK has 6; therefore JJ happens 33% of the time (<40%)
And the JJ bet will cost you 2 while the KK will gain you only 1.

Therefore it would be perfectly even IF this was the case.

What im suggesting is that the other factors in the hand are pushing towards the KK side and a raise.

Any chance of knowing the outcome btw? Sorry to be results oriented lol