Two respected posters disagree

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your ten outs, no?

-T

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your eleven outs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

First, its 10 outs to fill or better. 3 Qs, 3 8s, 3 of the flush-making card, and one deuce.

Secondly, you're doing the pot odds wrong. I'm calling 50 to win 185, not 235 (which includes my 50 call). Lets say I"m 4:1 against, which is roughly right.

I lose $50 4 times, for a net of -$200.
I win $185 once, for a net of $185.

Sum = -$15, averaged over 5 runs is a net of -$3/call if I call the turn getting 185:50.

The Doc

[TrailofTears]

I can't even do math after being up for 48 straight hours. Work is hell these days. Sorry Doc.

EDIT: I shouldn't have done my first math post tonight. I'll try this again tomorrow. Off to hit the hay like the donkey that I am.

[srm80]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AdKd calls in a heartbeat.
AxAd also likely calls.
KxKd calls at least half the time.
AdQx calls probably 20% of the time.
TdJd sometimes calls, as does 9dTd and 9dJd.

Add more hands to the above listing for extra bad PP 100NL players as appropriate...

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

just curious as to why you would think the diamond draw would call in a heartbeat to 75 more dollars but AA and KK only call some of the time? Wouldn't you rather have AA and KK call ALL the time, and instead of AQ calling 20% of the time, the 40 raise might bump that up to 50 or 60% of the time. And even if the BB called with the diamond draw after the SB called with his hand drawing dead, your hand would not mind since it is a mistake for the draw to call and you have such a big pot edge against your two opponents. When the turn hits you know you will be going all in, and since the AA, KK, or AQ called your reraise on the flop they will call your all in push for the 50. Plus, in the situations where the diamond hits that also pairs the board, you will still get action from the diamond draw even though you might not from the hands drawing dead. The raise to 40 looks like a win win situation. Great post by wayfare. I would like to read that Sklansky article by the way...

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never intended for my post to imply that I had forgotten about the dead money.

[teamdonkey]

If a push only folds hands you want in and gets called by hands that beat you, and a raise gives both players correct odds to call, then why do either?

There's always some value in deception. If you're the SB with AQ here, and you see the button just call, what do you put him on?

A good decision should be much easier to make on the turn with the pot still small enough that you can get away from it.

[srm80]

with the raise, one player would be drawing virtually dead unless they had a higher set which isn't a likely situation, and wayfare pointed out that the draw would not be getting correct odds to call and would be making a mistake by staying in.

[Publos Nemesis]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

I think it's bad to raise to roughly half your stack. Are you really going to fold to a turn diamond? If you're going to raise to half the stack, put it all in--that's an old NL credo, and assuming the other players in the hand know this too, they must discount the strength implied by my push.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Given publo's stack size, he has to push. Besides what he says above, another good reason would be that often flush draws will push on the draw. Knowing this, publo's opponents may think he is on a flush draw and call with top pair or the nut flush draw. Given the cold call, publo can reasonably expect one of the two players to have a good hand or draw.

Even if they fold, publo will have saved himself a tough decision on the turn if a diamond had come. Moreover, it's always better to win a small pot than lose a large one.

[srm80]

i think the point in this situation is trying to get the draw (if there is one) to make a mistake by calling and getting the drawing dead hand to call your all in. I just think if you push a flush draw will definitely fold, since obviously if they aren't the player semi-bluffing that move is taken away, and their only option is to fold. So by the pushing logic, the only hand that will call you half of the time is AA, and KK, maybe AQ 1/5 of the time. By raising you can push your pot edge and make more money against a larger range of hands. I just can't see many hands calling the 75 more.

[srm80]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the point in this situation is trying to get the draw (if there is one) to make a mistake by calling and getting the drawing dead hand to call your all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

by all in I mean all-in on the turn. that way you will double up more often than not, and possibly triple up if the flush draw makes the mistake of calling your flop raise of $40. The point is to maximize your profit!