Two respected posters disagree

[jakeoneil]

I figure that the only hands that will call an all in of 80 on top here in a 60 dollar pot are 88 and QQ.

Thats just my opinion though, the all in either wins you a small pot or loses you a big one. I like a reraise the size of the pot, to 40 or 45.

[theben]

i dont like it. that puts 1/2 your stack in and puts you in an odd spot on a turn w/ a diamond, which certainly gives you the worst hand. it'll price you as about even money to call should a bad turn hit.

rather than doing that, i like pushing the flop hoping to get it HU against KK+ or just calling the flop and pushing the turn should no diamond fall. if you just call the flop and then push the turn if its safe, you wait to raise when your advantage is bigger and make it cheap and easy to fold on the turn

this goes under the assumption that the players will call with a draw and take one off if you make a small reraise as opposed to pushing

[TheWorstPlayer]

Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[DrPublo]

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just curious as to why you would think the diamond draw would call in a heartbeat to 75 more dollars but AA and KK only call some of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the nut diamond draw is out there, he's getting 135:75 to call (more obviously if the other player calls sa well). That's almost 2:1. Neither player knows that he's against a set, so they must think that they're a little less than 2:1 against with two cards to come, and possibly have some more outs if an A or K (or running As or Ks) are good as well. I think AKs or AJs often calls at this price and races it, not knowing that they're actually a 3:1 dog.

AA and KK call less often of course because its just a one pair hand and doesn't have nearly as many outs to improve. For example, AA is basically even money with Kd2d on the flop.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

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Given the cold call, publo can reasonably expect one of the two players to have a good hand or draw.

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This is the answer. Well said.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

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Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
The point of my question was to illustrate that, under that scenario, you would clearly want to raise small to keep the third guy in. In any case, if the flush hits and you don't fill up, you will be stacked. Even the small raise pot commits you. You will call if the flush hits the turn and the BB pushes - or at least you should. So the only thing that matters on the margin is how big the pot is when you win. And by keeping in the third guy, the pot is larger when you win, so that is the best move. Just acknowledge that you will get stacked when the flush hits. You are simply not deep enough to get away. You should worry more about maximizing winnings when the flush doesn't hit then about protecting your hand against the flush draw which could very well not even be out there.

[Publos Nemesis]

I guess this then becomes a question of mean/variance preference. I think the doc and I would both move all in b/c we would prefer to make it heads up and minimize the amount we lose. We would rather not have to get all in when the flush comes. I respect were you are coming from TWP, but sometimes the most optimal $ EV play is not the best for a given person. I would rather win a small pot than lose a big one when I was ahead. This preference leads me to value in non $ EV moving all in here more than getting it in on the turn.

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
The point of my question was to illustrate that, under that scenario, you would clearly want to raise small to keep the third guy in. In any case, if the flush hits and you don't fill up, you will be stacked. Even the small raise pot commits you. You will call if the flush hits the turn and the BB pushes - or at least you should. So the only thing that matters on the margin is how big the pot is when you win. And by keeping in the third guy, the pot is larger when you win, so that is the best move. Just acknowledge that you will get stacked when the flush hits. You are simply not deep enough to get away. You should worry more about maximizing winnings when the flush doesn't hit then about protecting your hand against the flush draw which could very well not even be out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very well explained. Everyone who agrees with pushing please read this.