JJ turned set and donked

[peterchi]

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It's also possible that he has a smaller set of 6s or 8s and was planning on c/r the turn until the third club came and is trying to use it as a scare card and to see where he is with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ding Ding Ding

He showed pocket 8s and mhig.

[Bodhi]

Easy raise. If he 3-bets, you call and showdown. This sort of donk-bet is usually a bluff, as a lot of bad players rigidly check-raise their good hands and bet out with weak hands. Of course, if you fill up on the river you should cap it if given the opportunity.

[Bodhi]

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I tend not to lose enough $$ with my sets when I'm beat.

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[Bodhi]

I hope you raised the turn.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I tend not to lose enough $$ with my sets when I'm beat.

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What I was saying was my ballz aren't going to shrink in this situation. I'm going to raise that turn and call the reraise and call a river bet, even with a 4th club. People are not going to step on me in this situation and it's a good one for my opponent to make a move on.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's too weak, and that I really do need to raise this turn.

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Without reading other replies:

My first thought was fold. Then I realized I totally miscounted outs vs. pot size. Not having any real reads, he has 10 outs, right (or am I off somehow?) He's getting 5 to 1 to call and only needs 3.6. Therefore, I'd say it's well worth the raise.

EDIT: After reading everyone's replies, it looks like I actually came up with the right answer, however, was my reasoning correct? ...and math?

[TheHammer24]

Wow, automatic raise here. Calling down would be absurdly weak tight.

[mikeyvegas]

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Wow, automatic raise here. Calling down would be absurdly weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

see above.

[W. Deranged]

Raise.

Think about it this way: How often, if you are a relatively generic not that sophisticated live low/mid limit player are you donk-betting a perfect flush card on the flop in a heads-up pot? How often are you not betting/raising with a flush draw on the flop?

This is not easy hand-reading, but I also don't think it's particularly tough hand reading. With flush draws in small and/or short-handed pots, most players at these levels will:

1. Get some money in on the flop in some fashion.

2. Try to get more money in when they hit, usually by check-raising the turn.

A donk-bet on a flush card here is usually, in my experience, more likely to represent someone who is *afraid* of the flush card than one who is thrilled by it. A donk-bet here is more likely to come from someone afraid of the turn getting checked through because of the flush potential, rather than from someone who is afraid of missing a bet on the turn. In a heads-up pot, your opponent is expecting you to bet the good big card/big pair hand you are representing.

Raising now is better than waiting to a later street because:

1. A fourth club may either kill you or kill your action on the river.

2. Someone who might be betting a draw (not the most often occurance, but happens) will pay now but not later.