Turn a wheel, river a split?

#1 10-26-2005, 12:24 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

Button ($55.85)
SB ($69.45)
BB ($84.89)
Hero ($224.97)
UTG+1 ($15.10)
UTG+2 ($48.50)
MP1 ($74.50)
MP2 ($50.40)
MP3 ($9)
CO ($23.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 5 folds, BB raises to $1.5, Hero calls $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $5, BB folds.

Turn: ($18.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $20, MP1 calls $20.

River: ($58.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $47.50, Hero calls $47.50.

Final Pot: $153.25

--------------------
PF - I know I should have folded pf but I had a feeling many people would get in this to made it +EV.

Flop- I didnt think anyone that calls a 2$ pf raise had anything that could have hit this board. A set or an overpair would raise me in which case I would fold (unless its a douchy min raise). I have middle pair with an inside straight draw.

Turn: I figure if he called with two overcards he has an ace and its split pot. He will push. I can only see him calling with a set or two pair that he desperatly wants to improve. Which he does.

River- Great, my straight is busted. I can only assume split pot so I check to not get the rake up. He goes all in and I can only see that as a scare attempt. There is no way someone plays a flush draw like this. He was up 25$ before this hand, he can't be that bad. The only hand I see him with that wins this is A7 and that is to put him on looking at the flop call.

What do you think, what do you put him on? Thanks. Results to come.

hockeyf · #2 10-26-2005, 01:14 AM

Just fold the river, to expensive to split. I say its about 50/50 this is a split, dont call.

#3 10-26-2005, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just fold the river, to expensive to split. I say its about 50/50 this is a split, dont call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems expensive to fold seeing as I've put in so much already.

gol4pro · #4 10-26-2005, 03:38 PM

You're risking 50$ to win 50$. That simple. If you aren't going to c/f the river, then push yourself.

#5 10-26-2005, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way someone plays a flush draw like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you think this without a read. The only guide you might have as to it not being a flush draw is her push on the river. You are playing for half the pot at best, and lose the remainder of the time. You need better than 1.2:1 odds to call this. You have to win the whole pot (which is impossible) 45% of the time to make this call correct mathematically.

(As a side question, does this mean you need to win half the pot 90% of the time to make this call correct?)

#6 10-26-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no way someone plays a flush draw like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you think this without a read. The only guide you might have as to it not being a flush draw is her push on the river. You are playing for half the pot at best, and lose the remainder of the time. You need better than 1.2:1 odds to call this. You have to win the whole pot (which is impossible) 45% of the time to make this call correct mathematically.

(As a side question, does this mean you need to win half the pot 90% of the time to make this call correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]

This logic crossed my mind. The rage due to being rivered soon took over and I just plain wanted my money back.

Side note: Your from London, Ontario! So am I! Your not a western student by any chance?