Turned straight being 3-bet

[alul]

Live 3/6 game, very loose. Both villains (MP1 and Button) are LAGs. I'm delt AKo in EP2.

UTG calls, EP1 calls, EP2 folds, I raise, MP1 cold calls, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button cold calls, SB folds, all call.

Flop JJQ rainbow (10.5 SB)
BB checks, UTG checks, EP1 checks, I bet, MP1 calls, Button calls, all the rest fold.

Turn T (makes two of flush on the board) (~7 BB)
I bet, M1 raises, Button 3bets, I...

What would you do - call, fold, cap?

Interesting hand. You're definitely not folding, but I'd be feeling pretty uncomfortable with my made straight.

If someone flops trips, they rarely raise with it on the flop. People love to "slowplay" trips and raise on the turn. It is possible that both of the raisers have a J - however one of them may have made a worse straight on the turn. If someone has a J they could easily have a full house, since JT and JQ are very likely hands for preflop cold-callers. People love playing JT especially.

I'd love to cap this, but I probably call down.

[The Legend]

Yea, jjq is the type of flop that makes a boat all the more likely. I'd call down, expecting to win a good chunk of the time, but not 50%.

Check the flop. Your bet wont win it, and it would be helpful to see the action afterwards.

Fold the turn. There are a ton of ways you are drawing dead, and you suffer from flush redraws on the river.

This is awful advice. I can understand just calling the turn and check/calling the river if you're convinced we're behind that often, but we cannot fold this without at least some heavy river action.

Doing some analysis, there are 6 combos of JT, 6 combos of QJ, one combo of JJ, 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of TT we're behind, for a total of 19 combinations.

There are 6 combos of AJ, 6 combos of KJ, 12 combos of K9 and 16 combos of 98 we're ahead of, for a total of 40 combinations. Even if you restrict it to K9s and 98s, that's 19 combinations total.

You really want to fold when we're ahead a majority of the time here?

A two-flush board that reads JJQT, and that has been bet, raised, and re-raised is pretty scary. While you can certainly make arguments that the raising is coming from a smaller str8 or trip jacks, I think you need to seriously recognize how often you are not in good shape.

Some of the time you will be chopping with AK.

Some of the time you will be drawing dead.

Also, the number of redraws you face are also staggering--even if you aren't willing to credit a boat, you must credit at least trip jacks. With trip jacks, villains have 10 draws to a boat or quads, plus potential flush draws on top of that.

Now add in the fact that you're stuck between the raiser and bettor, and that in order to see the showdown, it is potentially going to cost you 5-7 more big bets. I just can't justify calling here.

Admittedly, you fold the best hand sometimes, but the board is really atrocious. Certainly, reads help a lot in this position.

Let's put it differently: Suppose the game were a no-limit game. Would you call here? The possibility of lots more aggressive betting on the river makes calling the turn unattractive to me.

Fine, but this is NOT a no limit game. So, half the time we're drawing dead here, maybe, and the other half of the time we have the best hand with perhaps a third of the deck that has us beat (granted, 10 outs make the FH a certainty but there aren't 9 pure outs to the flush because they don't have the draw every time). We will win, then, a monster pot 33 % of the time and lose 4 or 5 bets the other 66 % of the time. I'm OK with that sort of situation, and I think it's + EV at this point.

Assuming the turn gets capped, it will cost you 3 more BBs to call the turn, and the implied pot size (assuming both villains come along for the cap), will be 15 BBs. But this 15BBs needs to be discounted:

Chop: AK (9)
You are drawing dead: JT, JQ, JJ, QQ, or TT (19)
You are ahead but they are live: AJ, KJ (12)
You are ahead, they are drawing dead: K9, 98 (28)

Total possible combos: 68

Chop = 9/68 = 13%
You dead = 28%
You ahead, they are alive = 18%
They dead = 41%

Of the 18% trip jack scenarios, 30% of the time they will draw out on you on the river, and 70% of the time the board won't pair.

So the trip jack 18% really is:
You ahead, but they draw out on you: 6%
You ahead and stay ahead: 12%

So of the 15 BBs in the pot, on a discounted basis, you get the following:

AKChop(15*13%*50%) + BoatOnTurn(15*28%*0) + TripJack[(6%*0)+(12%*15)] + They'reDead(41%*15) = 8.9 BBs

This pot on the turn is paying you 8.9-to-3, or roughly 3:1 Yet on the turn, you are drawing dead 28% of the time, and will be dead by the river an additional 6% of the time. To be EV neutral, you need 2:1 or better.

You have an overlay of sorts (2:1 vs. 3:1), however consider that I have ignored flush redraws on the river, and I have also ignored the implied cost of seeing the showdown on the river (where it could be bet and raised again).

If you believe that the real cost of getting to showdown is more like 5-6BBs, a call on the turn is really slender. There's just not a ton of EV to the call, and it adds a lot of variance to your results.

Just my 2 cents. (PS--I did the math fast, so I may have errors, but you get the idea of my thinking.)

I just cant see calling here.

[jskills]

I would love to get to showdown as cheaply as possible here. I think you're looking at a boat at least half the time.

Tough spot.

[alul]

... I call, MP1 caps, Button calls, I call.

River 2 (no flush possible) (18 BB)
I check, (strange thing happens) MP1 checks, Button bets, I...

Do you call or fold?