Who calls this river????

[SGS]

I am playing in a 15/30 party game that is pretty good. No one is catching my attention as being overly good or aggressive, but some are too loose. Anyways to the hand. I get A,10o in the CO and open for a raise. The button and the BB come along. I have no real info on either of these players other than they defend their blinds too liberally.

Flop- Q,7,2 (rainbow)

BB checks, I bet, and they both call.

Turn- 10

Checked to me again, I check, the button bets and the BB calls. Do you proceed here??? If you do and the river comes a brick and the button bets again and the BB calls again then what do you do??? Thanks in advance.

SGS

[elysium]

hi sgs
steal-raises from the CO are not really steal-raises. they are steal-raise/representation plays. when your steal attempt from the CO fails, you must then convert it into a representation play. you must be prepared to represent the A or K if an A or K flops. having the secondary function of the steal as a back-up plan gives you a truer heading in the continuation of the hand.

when the flop produces a Q high board, you must prepare to slow-play since you cannot represent the Q. how in the world....what? a slow-play ??

i know. here's what has happened. you tried to steal and got called in two places. the raise in was from the CO so you will represent the A or K if either or both flop. well, that doesn't pan out either. but if you're checked to, you must figure to have a slight lead. if you're checked to on the flop, your lead will require that you bet, and this bet is mandatory because you must get the button out. you cannot allow the button to bet based on weakness shown because then your chances go way down. why? because, if you hit an A or T on the turn, you will slow-play meaning that you will not be betting to get the fold, your only option with AT unimproved when it holds a precarious lead, but you will instead call if bet into, instead of raising or folding, and check if checked to, instead of betting. so you must get the button out by betting into him on the flop. if he calls, well that's better than his betting. if the button calls, there is some chance that the BB will fold, whereas if the button bets, well now the BB might think that the button is betting based solely on the weakness shown, and also believe that he might be able to get heads up against the weak button.

so checking to the button on the flop sets up a chain reaction that drags the BB into this thing kicking and screaming when he would have folded if you bet and the button called. the same over-caller pressure that you feel when the BB calls the button, is suppose to be the same over-caller pressure that you were suppose to apply on the BB and button by betting when checked to.

you cannot call the flop. you must fold when the BB calls the button.

the reason you fold is because if you hit that A or T on the turn, you must now raise to get heads up and for a free river show-down. well, this raise must be made on the heels of flop strength as part of its prerequisite. your raise must be precipitated by flop strength unless your raise can stand being over-called, and it can't. if checked to, you must bet. but now the odds of getting raised have increased. your hand can't stand a raise. more importantly, there are 2 opponents in the pot. the liklihood of being behind have gone up.

understanding that you had the option to represent an A or K if either flopped leads you toward the direction of slow-playing because if the A flops, you will have a weak kicker, and if the T flops, you will be over-carded. but you can represent a strong kicker if the A flops, or anything from a set to an over-pair if a T flops, and that should get you heads up. being heads up gives you the luxury of calling the turn and the option of calling the river after having only called the turn. of course you bet or check if checked to, and play your hand in a variety of ways, including conservative ways. and of course, you should lean toward slow-playing, but nothing stopping you from being more aggressive either. but whatever you do, you must be heads up.

you should have anticipated how this hand would have played if you hit something on the turn. you should have seen how important it was not to allow the button to give the impression to the BB that the button was betting based on weakness shown, thereby insuring that the BB would call. nor should you have given the BB encouragement by hinting to him that he could get heads up against the button.

finally, the over-call destroys another option in the event that you miss the turn; you can bet into or raise the BB on the turn, and fire again on the river if your observations warrant giving it another shot on the river. if you hit an A or T on the river, you can call or check it down. but you need heads up here too.

you've got to see that you have a heads up slow-playing hand. and you must realize this when it counts; when you are checked to on the flop. if you remember that steal- raises are not steal-raises from the CO; they are steal-raises/representation plays, it will help you organize your thinking early on, so that you can lay the proper groundwork for the slow-play on the one hand, or bluff. if your bluff proves to be a value bet with A high unimproved, that's fine too. you just don't want to be raised, and you avoid getting raised holding a hand that likely has a precarious lead by betting when checked to on the flop.

if you get bet into on the flop, fold. if you do as instructed and get heads up on the flop, but don't improve, and don't think a river bluff will work after failing to get the fold on the turn, and throw in the towel on the river, well your opponent also may throw in the towel after calling your bluff bet or raise on the turn. in that case, you get a free river show-down, and who knows? you may take the pot down yet. often, what you think is a bluff is really a value bet with the stronger hand. this possibility is also clearly seen on the flop.

[SA125]

"but if you're checked to, you must figure to have a slight lead. if you're checked to on the flop, your lead will require that you bet, and this bet is mandatory because you must get the button out. you cannot allow the button to bet based on weakness shown because then your chances go way down."

Why is it mandatory? He bet and the button called. Now what?

"so checking to the button on the flop sets up a chain reaction that drags the BB into this thing kicking and screaming when he would have folded if you bet and the button called"

I have a lot of respect for your insight, but how in the world can you say the BB would have folded? You have no idea what he has.

"you cannot call the flop. you must fold when the BB calls the button"

In other words, you got nothing. Get out. Retreat and fight again.

[SA125]

I would've ch the flop. Why? On the one hand, r blind then ch flop is sign of weak/tight. You don't want that.

On the other hand, you're in the CO and make what could be a steal attempt. The button either has a decent hand or doesn't buy it, and the blinds are defended too liberally.

So, what do you really gain by the flop bet? I've seen it posted that PFR are wrongly auto-betted on flop and I agree. Also, some of the strongest players I've seen aren't always charging from the gate.

If you ch, maybe button is thinking about a ch/r and gives everyone a freebie. Now the $15 you saved on the flop is maybe used to call the 10 that spiked.

If he bets, now you're asking yourself how far you want to take this A10o hand that didn't hit but a Q did.

Giving in too soon? Maybe. Not putting lipstick on a pig is another possibility. Playing from behind isn't profitable.

As far as the turn, you have 5 maybe 6 outs and have no idea if your 2nd pair is boss. Go with your instinct.

A brick on the river? Do you think they're bluffing or is it worth a crying call?

[Indian Ocean]

I argree with SA125.

Go with your instinct.

[ALL1N]

Yes I call the river.

Betting the turn seems like a fantastic play to me though!

[Gabe]

As I'm sure other people have and will point out, you should bet the turn. Maybe if you don't bet out you can check-raise. If you don't bet or check-raise the turn I guess call and call the river.

I would have bet the turn, and if no one raised I'd bet the river.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Checked to me again, I check, the button bets and the BB calls. Do you proceed here??? If you do and the river comes a brick and the button bets again and the BB calls again then what do you do???

[/ QUOTE ]
you should bet on turn or C/R if not bet.

River bet or check (call) about same.

Kenny