I don't know what to do here : top pair, no kicker, OOP

[sweetjazz]

I am playing in a loose and juicy NL game with 2/5 blinds. Unfortunately, I am pretty new to NL, so I'm not that much better than the others at my table (who aren't very good). Villain in the hand is pretty new to the table, has played 2 or 3 hands in about an orbit, hasn't shown anything down. Table is generally pretty loose. My image is tight and aggressive, but I've shown down less than premium hands several times (99, AJ, JT). My stack was at about 190 (the buy-in is 200 and I had folded the past orbit through). Villain had a similar stack size, I think I had him covered by 20 or 30.

Five players limp in and I check in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. (Pot = 30.)

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet out for 20 and get two callers. (Pot = 90.) Turn is the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. (Pot = 130.) I bet out for 20 again and only the villain calls. River is the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, villain bets 40 and I fold.

After getting called in two places, I initially planned on check-folding the turn. When I picked up the diamond draw, I made a weak bet hoping to see a river card cheaply. All I beat on the river is a bluff, and the general play at the table has been almost no bluffing and very timid value betting. I am getting 4-to-1 on a river call, and I think I am against a better jack, two pair, or a badly played AQ/AK more often than that.

That was my thinking, but all of the postflop streets were tricky for me. Can you offer some advice to a beginner who doesn't know how to play this kind of hand in a loose NL game? Thanks in advance.

Your building the pot OOP against LAG players with TPBK. It cant get any worse then this. Your either going to win small pot or lose a big one. Im clicking the check/fold button, find a better spot to get your money in against these donks.

[amoeba]

I typically check this flop.

theres nothing that says you have to bet the flop when you have TP.

I bet the turn if checked through.

[sweetjazz]

The players at this table were not very aggressive. And some were making rather loose calls.

That's not to say that check/folding at some point isn't best, just that I am not at a table full of LAGs where I can trap someone on just about every big hand I hit.

Theres no point in building a pot OOP with loose players with such a marginal holding. If they make loose calls make them pay for it when you hit your big hands. Im not wasting my money trying to get this pot just becuase i have TP against loose opponents.

[sweetjazz]

Are you checking the flop with the intention of folding to any bet?

Will you call a smallish bet (say 15) if it comes from your left and nobody else calls? if it comes from your left and several people call?

Will you checkraise if it is checked to the button and he bets if the button bets a lot of flops in that situation? If so, are you planning to check/fold UI if he calls the CR? Bet the turn again UI as the last chips you put into the pot? Or might you flatcall in this situation and lead the turn (some/all of the time)?

Sorry for all the questions, but this kind of situation seems complex to me. I feel like I am losing too much in always ditching this hand here, but that I am risking too much playing it now because I don't know the optimal way to handle it.

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Sorry for all the questions, but this kind of situation seems complex to me. I feel like I am losing too much in always ditching this hand here, but that I am risking too much playing it now because I don't know the optimal way to handle it.

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The only thing folding this hand does is saves you money in the long term and thats the point of view you have to take into NL hold'em. Sure you may pick up a pot becuase a donk decided to pay you off with air this one time. But out of 100 times, if you played this hand i guarantee you wouldn't be + money. You need to make the most +EV play for the long term.

[sweetjazz]

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Im not wasting my money trying to get this pot just becuase i have TP against loose opponents.

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Are you saying that any approach to playing this hand other than check/folding the flop has negative EV? If not, then it's not "wasting" money to try to play this hand correctly.

I come from a limit background, where always check/folding in this situation is a weak play that is not the best EV play. I realize that this may not be the case in NL, but I would like to understand why.

My goal in learning NL is not to learn rules like "always check/fold top pair, bad kicker OOP in a multiway pot" but to understand the basic poker principles underlying the game and how to apply them in game situaitons. If I think that someone with a pair of eights will call two smallish bets and then check behind on the river, is that enough equity to make playing on the right play? What if I think there are two limpers who will also play a pair of threes that way? Does it change things if I think the average player will call two smallish bets with a gutshot or two overcards and bluff at the river 10% of the time? What if I think that every player at the table will only bet a pair of jacks or better on the river and never bluff?

The reason you dont like playing this hand OOP is becuase you can get moved off your hand much to easy having already invested money in the hand. As you can see villan put in less then a 1/3 pot bet on river and you had to fold your marginal hand becuase there was no way to check whehter your hand was good or not without commiting to many chips to the pot. It's much easier to play a hand like this in Pos where if forces the other opponent to put you on a hand and any aggression you notice will allow you to fold your hand with the minimum amount you could in this pot.

The main reason im check folding here is becuase as you can see he could be calling with air here but one river bet, even gives me 4:1 i must fold, and thats how easy it is to move you off your hand.

[sweetjazz]

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The only thing folding this hand does is saves you money in the long term and thats the point of view you have to take into NL hold'em. Sure you may pick up a pot becuase a donk decided to pay you off with air this one time. But out of 100 times, if you played this hand i guarantee you wouldn't be + money. You need to make the most +EV play for the long term.

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I am not disagreeing with you, per se. BUT WHY??? I want to understand WHY folding here is the most +EV play.

For starters, let's try to estimate the probability that nobody else has a jack. There are 47 unseen cards, two of which are jacks. There are 10 unknown cards out there. Let's begin by assuming that each opponent has a random hand. (They are loose, so this is a decent first approximation, though of course, we expect to see them with a J more often than a 2.) There's a 45/47 chance the first isn't a jack, a 44/46 the second isn't a jack (assuming the first wasn't), and so. The total probability that nobody has a jack is (37*36)/(47*46) = 0.616.

Let's assume that they are a little more likely to have a J because of their preflop hand selection, and let's also discount our odds because they could have 83 (especially if it is suited), 88 or 33. So let's say that 50% of the time there is a better hand out there.

Okay, I just bet 20 into a pot with 30 in it. Any other hand calling is a mistake, so if they are playing optimally (from the POV of the FTOP) I should win 30 50% of the time and lose 20 50% of the time. (But BTW I have outs to improve to two pair and a BD flush draw, so I can still win some of the time I am called.) So according to this simplistic model, my flop bet has an EV of 5.

So again, I ask can someone explain explain WHY check/folding would be best here?