After the flop odds/after the turn odds

[beaster]

I think I've been making a pretty serious error in valuing my hands. I read the Memorizing the Odds article in this month's 2+2 magazine and almost [censored] a brick when I realized what I've been doing.

I'VE BEEN USING TURN ODDS TO VALUE MY HAND AFTER THE FLOP.

As an example of this, let's take a hand like KQo in the BB. Here's my thought process:

Preflop: Check or call for 1 bet.

On the flop: The flop is something like J 8 3, rainbow. Hm, I have 6 outs, do I have odds to call? (7 to 1) If there's 7 bets in the pot, I call, otherwise, I fold. I fold if the flop is raised.

On the turn: If I see the turn and whiff, again I still have 6 outs. Do I have odds to call (7 to 1 again)

I've got it wrong on the flop, don't I? To make my hand by the river, the odds I have are actually 3 to 1. Barring any strong draws or serious action, I should pretty much be calling everytime to see the turn or in some cases, raising. I then revaluate my hand on the turn. If I missed, THEN my odds to make my hand are 7 to 1.

Sweet jesus I feel like a fool.

Yep, odds of making it after the turn after virtually 50% of what they are after the flop.

I have just started memorising the chart (from that article) today. Can't decide whether to try and learn / memorise the chart exactly as it is- or to round up / down to make it easier???


Regards,
Ian

[SheridanCat]

I think the only confusion you are experiencing is the difference between immediate pot odds and effective pot odds. Effective pot odds take into consideration your odds if you are planning to see the hand all the way to the river. Technically, effective odds are your odds with more than one card to come, but that usually means seeing the river in hold'em.

I think taking a hand like KQo to far is a moderate leak for some players. Remember, you can hit a pair on the river and still lose.

Against a large field, I'd rarely take KQo to the river unimproved. Your mileage may vary in a shorthanded game, of course. In that situation, KQo can win unimproved.

With a hand like this, I will often call a single flop bet to see the turn, but that's usually going to be it for me if I miss. I'd have to be headsup and have a good read on my opponent to push it.

So, I don't think your use of immediate pot odds is too bad, really. It's when you're on a strong draw that you start thinking about the effective odds, in my opinion.

For more on effective odds, see Sklansky's Theory Of Poker.

Regards,

T