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#11
09-18-2005, 01:52 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. I've been doing way too much math on these boards today, so I'm not gonna attempt to prove/disprove what you just said. Maybe you're right; I'm just under the assumption that sample sizes are almost always too small [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I do know that after ~150 games my ROI was like 15%; so that suggests that there's still significant variance at this scale.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does this suggest significant variance?
#12
09-18-2005, 01:56 AM
 Sponger15SB Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Isla Vista Posts: 1,536
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
How does this suggest significant variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well in the first 150 he had a 15% ROI, and in the 2nd 150 he had a 45% ROI, thats a pretty big change?
#13
09-18-2005, 01:58 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh. I've been doing way too much math on these boards today, so I'm not gonna attempt to prove/disprove what you just said. Maybe you're right; I'm just under the assumption that sample sizes are almost always too small [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I do know that after ~150 games my ROI was like 15%; so that suggests that there's sti
ll significant variance at this scale.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does this suggest significant variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

My ROI for first 150 was ~15%. My ROI then was ~45% over the next 150. That's variance.
#14
09-18-2005, 02:39 AM
 mmmmmbrother Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: 2/4? maybe next week Posts: 383
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

you can play at least 2 of these at once.
the 4 person headsup matches are better i think.
#15
09-18-2005, 02:46 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh. I've been doing way too much math on these boards today, so I'm not gonna attempt to prove/disprove what you just said. Maybe you're right; I'm just under the assumption that sample sizes are almost always too small [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I do know that after ~150 games my ROI was like 15%; so that suggests that there's sti
ll significant variance at this scale.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does this suggest significant variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

My ROI for first 150 was ~15%. My ROI then was ~45% over the next 150. That's variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you got better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
#16
09-18-2005, 02:58 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh. I've been doing way too much math on these boards today, so I'm not gonna attempt to prove/disprove what you just said. Maybe you're right; I'm just under the assumption that sample sizes are almost always too small [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I do know that after ~150 games my ROI was like 15%; so that suggests that there's sti
ll significant variance at this scale.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does this suggest significant variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

My ROI for first 150 was ~15%. My ROI then was ~45% over the next 150. That's variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you got better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you're joking or not. That's actual very possible... if you win these 60% of the time, your ROI is ~15%. If you win 70%, of the time, it's ~35%. Not sure if it's realistic to say that I jumped from ~60% to ~75% chance of winning.
#17
09-18-2005, 11:35 AM
 Phill S Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Nr Manchester, England Posts: 255
Re: Bankroll for 5.25 heads up matches on stars?

[ QUOTE ]
you can play at least 2 of these at once.
the 4 person headsup matches are better i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your ROI will be, generally speaking, higher, but so will your variance - so your bankroll needs to be very solid.

I think thats right anyway, i cant be arsed to get the calculator out however.

Phill

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