Stud Eight or Better Question - Page 3

Carl_William · #21 05-11-2003, 11:34 PM

D. It's more than slightly better to take it.

much more

Sly_Grin · #22 05-12-2003, 02:09 AM

I don't care that they see my cards. I WANT them to see my cards with $200 worth of antes out there ! How often are my opponents going to call looking at those cards ?

switters · #23 05-12-2003, 10:28 AM

naively, they are going to call precisely when they have you beaten/dominated... so the question is, will you make enough by stealing the antes between hands where you are contested to make up for this?

less naively, since you are up against experts, you can expect to face a lot of heat sometimes when you have far the best of it, because you can't know where your opponent is, but he can see your cards. If it doesn't seem so bad for him to bet into you when you're ahead, remember that he *knows* when you miss, but you don't have the same luxury...

- if you are raised up front by the Ah, how can you know he doesn't have 6h3h down, giving him a better low-draw, better flush-draw, and chopping off two of your pair outs? on the other hand, he KNOWS you know this, so he could have Ah9c8s... you can't know what to do.

- if you make a 7-low on 5th street, and your opponent has A23 showing, can you fold to him? he *knows* you're going low, so if he has a high only, his scary-looking low up cards will certainly put pressure on you to fold and give him the whole pot... if he has a 7-low also, he scoops, unless you improve...

I'm going to go with C for my answer - I think an expert player could do somewhat better with a random holding that's hidden.

If there is a way to play this proposition profitably, it seems it would almost have to be a strategy that involved ignoring the apparent strength of your opponent's hand (except in pathological cases -- trips up for instance...) and simply betting, calling, or folding based on what your completely exposed hand makes... something containing rules like "if you make a flush or a 7-low, bet until raised, and then call down..." I can't imagine this is very profitable, if at all, against "expert" players. (although, this is dependent on the starting hand: 763s is probably on, or near, the cusp of profitability for situations like this, or else why would David ask the question? -- if you give me the same deal, but with A23s or KKK, I'm nearly certain that its profitable, and if you give me the deal with K92, I'm equally certain that it isn't. there must be some inflection point where the deal crosses from profit to loser, so the REAL question is, where is that point for an "expert" player?)

-switters

Carl_William · #24 05-12-2003, 02:34 PM

Dear David,

You posted”

“I asked some of the best players in the world this question and got surprisingly disparite answers.

The game is 100-200 Eight or Better. Twenty five dollar ante. Twenty five dollar bring in. Expert opponents. Eight handed game.

You are offered the following proposition. You will be dealt the 763 all clubs with the seven as your "upcard". …”

An interesting post with lots of responses…. Lots of opinions – interesting, I don’t know…. We will never know the truth unless....

One way to get a better answer to your quiz would be to do an experiment. Gather 8 (including yourself) of the best players and play this game you mentioned in the quiz. A good forum would be to rotate the “763 clubs” to each player for one round (8 deals), and agree to play 192 deals. Each player would have a round of “763 clubs” eight times during the session – resulting in a fair shake for each player. Eight rounds would also give each player a little learning curve time to adjust to the situation. Data (statictics) would be kept for each player: how he/she did during the eight times she/he held the “763 clubs,” and how they did for the 192 deals. Then you could report the results to the 2+2 forum and also in a published article. You could tabulate the 2+2 responses to your quiz, and then compare them with the lab experiment game conducted with these best players.

The results would be very interesting and fun to read.

MMMMMM · #25 05-12-2003, 03:42 PM

Unless you are virtually certain of your answer, how do you reconcile the fact that some of the world's best players provided "widely disparate answers"?

Now: I don't know what the answer is. I chose "B", slightly better to take it, because that's what I feel intuitively, and based on my very limited assessment of the factors involved. However we must realize that, in order for there to have been "widely disparate answers", it would seem likely that either:

1) Some of the world's best players got it very wrong because it's an exceptionally tricky problem or because they aren't nearly as good at problems like this as we would expect them to be, or

2) Some of the world's best players got it somewhat wrong because it's fairly close and not an easy problem.

I think "2" is the more likely scenario, which supports choices A, B and C.

MMMMMM · #26 05-12-2003, 07:55 PM

"surprisingly disparate answers" I misquoted as "widely disparate answers"---means almost the same thing here I think.

David Sklansky · #27 05-12-2003, 08:25 PM

1. The fact that the best players in the world disagreed doesn't prove its close. It proves they win because of instinct rather than analyticaal ability

2. The FTOP doesn't say that you show an absolute loss when others know your cards. It only says that you (usually ) do less well.

3. The question does NOT come down to whether your ante steals make up for the times you are called. An expert calling you does not mean you will show a long term loss on that hand . It means only that you will win less than $200.

Sly_Grin · #28 05-12-2003, 08:38 PM

a couple reasons
1. "the world's best players" doesn't mean they EVER play stud hi-lo. It's not a very popular game and can't even be found in most casinos.
2. some of the best players aren't exactly geniuses when it comes to theory. Reading hands and people and NOT being read yourself is far more important at high levels than knowing answers to questions like this. And some of these "best players" may have that rep from tournaments which is again a whole different ballgame.
3. I could be wrong but I play a ton of hi-lo online and the % of hands which dominate 763 suited is minute IMO. Who cares about facing rolled trips, it's a 1 in 425 shot. 3 suited cards 7 or lower to start is 158-1 but it's even worse than that since I'm starting with 763. Worrying about 3 suited cards 7 or lower including an Ace is really silly since that's something like 550-1.

In short, I think the antes will be picked up a huge percentage of the time and if they aren't that's not a bad thing either.

cferejohn · #29 05-12-2003, 08:45 PM

Well, then it sounds like MMMMMM's theory #1 is correct. The worlds best players are not as good at this sort of problem as we might expect.

MMMMMM · #30 05-12-2003, 10:06 PM

My impression is that in the most recent years, many of the highest cash games have been multi-games such as HOE, SHOE, etc. So I'm guessing a lot of these players would have recently been playing a fair amount of 8/B.

I agree that the ante-picking-up potential of this face-up hand face-up is good, which is one reason I favor the proposition (although I may be thinking the open-hand condition moderates the earning potential more than it actually does).