could I have escaped this hand?

[switters]

Let me start off by saying that I am not a regular pot- or no-limit player -- it's hands like this that are going keep me out until I figure out what's going on...

pot limit game ($2/$5 blinds). I've got about $300 in front of me. (most of the table has between $200 and $500 in front of them)

UTG limps, MP makes it $10 to go, and the cutoff follows him in. SB folds, and I have KK in the BB. I raise the max, which is $45 (rounds up to an even red chip). UTG calls, all the others drop - $132 in the pot. I know UTG is pretty loose pre-flop, will play a lot of hands with big-pot value, even way out of position. He also banks on his VERY agressive post-flop play to win him a lot of pots. I am absolutely certain that he did not limp UTG with a pair of 9's or better or AK/AQ, FWIW.

anyways, the flop is:

Th Td 6d

here's the first place I don't know for sure what the right move is. I have $245 left in front of me (UTG has just a little more - about $275). Hard to put the UTG cold-caller on anything in particular - I've mentioned above the range of hands I am sure he DOESN'T have. I am fairly certain that he will bet any small pair into me, and if he has a diamond draw, depending on whether he has a nut diamond draw, he may semi-bluff it now, or take the free card if I check -- clearly I don't think I can check this and give him a free card, and I can't see how I can fold if he bets! Since I have to bet, I decide to bet the pot -- he calls.

Q1) is there any reason NOT to bet here?
Q2) could I have folded if he raised? (minimum raise puts me all-in if I call)

turn is a Qh (Th Td 6d). now there are many hands I can put him on after that flop (KdQd, QdJd) with which he will now pay me off. On the other hand, there are hands with a T that he could have, and 66 is a possibility... I decide again that I can't fold to a bet, so I put the last of my chips in... and he calls.

he shows QsTs, the river is a non-K, and I'm out -- I've reviewed this hand many times since then, and I just can't see any way I could have played it differently. I've had people suggest that only a T would cold-call the pot bet on the flop, so I can check-fold the turn, but I still felt that I could put the player on AJs, KQs, QJs, or KJs of diamonds, ALL of which are hands that this player would bet on the turn(still has diamond draw, and now a pair of Qs or a gutshot to go with), which leads me to believe that I played this as well as I can, and I'll just have to wait for QTs to keep calling my KK and paying off in the long run... My big problem with this hand is that from the flop on, I was pretty much resigned to "if he has a T, then I'm screwed, and there's no way to find out for sure, because this aggressive player will try to buy it if I let up for one moment..."

could anyone have played it differently?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

With the important exception of the flush draw, you are either way ahead or way behind on this flop. If you are sure he will bet with a lot of hands, you should consider checking-and-calling to the river. This will induce him to bluff off the maximum when he is behind, and cost you the minimum when he has the T or 66. The only disadvantage of such a strategy is when he catches a draw that he would've folded had YOU done the betting.

However, it is always a play worth considering against a very aggressive opponent. Especially one you can't read and who won't slow down once he gets called.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)