Two Plus Two Older Archives Odds with suited aces
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
12-28-2005, 09:14 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Odds with suited aces

I have been playing suited aces (e.g., A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) for cheap pre-flop. My plan is to jettison the hand if I don't flop either two pair or a flush-draw or better. I have been having trouble figuring the odds of this occurrence. I know that the odds of flopping a flush draw and of flopping two pair with unpaired cards, but I am having trouble figuring the odds of hitting either (a flush, trips, two pair, or a flush draw). I'm pretty sure that I am double counting some of my hoped for outcomes. Any help that I can get would be great.

Vince
#2
12-28-2005, 09:50 PM
 ohnonotthat Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: New Jersey - near A.C. Posts: 511
Re: Odds with suited aces

Flopped full house = 18

Flopped flush = 165

Flopped [flush] draw = 2,145 (Approximately 1 in 6 of these will include a pair on the board . . . 9h-3h-3s, however some will give YOU a pair and a draw . . . Ac-9h-3h for example).

Flopped trip 6s = 132

Flopped trip As = 132 (Not much of a flop to A-6)

Flopped two-pair = 396 (This refers only to flops of A-6-X. Flops such as A-2-2 are not counted as these two pair are not what you're aiming for - doubly true for A-7-7)

*

Bottom line is you'll get a flop you either like, love, or worship approximately 1 time in 7.

*

Note that the threat of being counterfeited when you do flop two pair is worthy of consideration. This will occur just over 4% of the time if the third flop card is below your "6" and ~ 12.5% of the time if the odd card is a above your "6".

Leading to the caveat, if you don't have the extra bonus of making a straight (A-2,3,4,5) the higher the better; A-9 is quite a bit better than A-6 - for this in addition to other reasons. The difference is not as pronounced as with A-K vs A-J but there is a notable diference.
#3
12-28-2005, 10:01 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Odds with suited aces

Thanks for the response, Ohno. I was trying to figure it out with factorials and was running into problems. I should have just looked at the ways that each given outcome could occur.

You also bring up great points about a flopped two-pair getting counterfeited. I am pretty good at getting away from those, though.
#4
12-28-2005, 10:59 PM
 johnsy Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 7
Re: Odds with suited aces

The key to playing these hands is playing them well.....

 Thread Tools Display Modes Hybrid Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     ISOP General Poker Discussion     Texas Hold'em     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory Limit Texas Hold'em     Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em     Medium Stakes Hold'em     Small Stakes Hold'em     Micro-Limits     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded PL/NL Texas Hold'em     Mid-, High-Stakes Pot- and No-Limit Hold'em     Medium-Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em     Small Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em Tournament Poker     Multi-table Tournaments     One-table Tournaments Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Rake Back     Computer Technical Help Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Software 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Science, Math, and Philosophy     The Stock Market

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:20 AM.