lvl 2 steal?

Newt_Buggs · #1 04-24-2005, 05:48 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

SB (t1145)
Hero (t730)
UTG (t510)
UTG+1 (t445)
MP1 (t1225)
MP2 (t315)
MP3 (t1690)
CO (t1010)
Button (t930)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, 1 fold, MP3 calls t30, 1 fold, Button calls t30, SB completes, Hero raises to t730 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: t880

6 BB in the pot for 180 chips total and I am pushing for 700. Worth the risk or better to just see a flop and probably give it up unless i flop a set?

Patrick Duffy · #2 04-24-2005, 05:55 PM

id stay away from this type of move. In a $6 or an $11, i definitely wouldnt make this play. You might get called by some random jokester with KJ or the like, and if you check and flop your set, you are definitely going to get paid. no need to risk it, even if it was limped all the way around...

EverettKings · #3 04-24-2005, 06:08 PM

Interesting play. It's surely +EV overall, but taking a flop is still better. If you push now, usually youll win a handful of chips, a few times youll get called and lose all of your chips, and even fewer times youll get called and double through. So it's a high variance, modest +EV play.

If you call and play to set (or for a nice, low flop), the times you set you'll increase your stack at least 50% on average, and the times the flop sucks you lose very little. The times you get a nice, nonset flop you will usually take down a modest pot (sometimes uncontested, sometimes over an A9 TPTK), but sometimes lose a decent pot when you get outflopped (remember, you're not going to the felt on a low flop necessarily). So it's a low variance, solidly +EV play.

So not only does the latter appear more +EV, it also has much much lower variance. Variance here matters because high variance costs you money. For example, if in two tournaments you bust the first hand in one and double the first hand in the other, you will win less money overall than if you didn't do anything on either first hand.

So your idea is right that it's +EV and at higher blinds I'd say it's the best play, but here I'd just take a flop.

-Kings

Afterh0urs · #4 04-24-2005, 06:26 PM

Not worth the flip you have here if you're called. I'd see a flop and continue with an openender, overpair, set.

Phoenix1010 · #5 04-24-2005, 06:55 PM

I think these plays are generally not worth it, but I like using them from time to time. It is probably +CEV, especially if you think someone will call you with an underpair, but the best part about it is that it opens up some useful opportunites down the road. For instance, if you happen to get aces or kings in the next few hands, you can push again and expect a call much more often than usual.

The problem is, in some games this kind of move can drastically increase your early game variance, which is exactly what you should be trying to avoid. The slight positive EV doesn't really make up for this, but it's not a terrible move in my opinion.

By the way, does Schneids know that you stole his avatar?

-Phoenix

Bigwig · #6 04-24-2005, 07:00 PM

This is terrible. There aren't enough chips in the pot to take this risk. Think of the pot you could've won if the flop came AT7.

Phoenix1010 · #7 04-24-2005, 07:24 PM

I don't know if it's really helpful to talk about a hand in terms of how many chips you could win if things played out exactly the way you'd want them to. If you think the EV of seeing a flop is higher than the EV of pushing, then you're almost certainly correct, but saying that you can win a lot when you flop a set against top pair isn't proving that point. You could also win a lot when someone calls your all-in with 99, but that's not the only possible situation.

Bigwig · #8 04-24-2005, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think the EV of seeing a flop is higher than the EV of pushing, then you're almost certainly correct

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course that's what I'm saying.

Freudian · #9 04-24-2005, 07:34 PM

I don't like this. Not enough money in the pot and TT is likely to be a coinflip when called. If there was 2-3 times as many chips in the pot I would like this much more.

Newt_Buggs · #10 04-24-2005, 08:51 PM

well, lets take a look at the EV. Lets say that I will get called 1/4 times, and when I do get called I will win 35% of the time

when I don't get called i make 3(180)= 540
When I get called I will win an average of (700+700+180)*.35= 535 chips
when I get called and lose I lose 700 chips, causing a net change of 535-700= -165
(540-165)/4= 93.5

Assuming I did my math right (which could very well not be true since I suck at math) this is a +93.5 play. I believe this is a conservative number though because I doubt I will only win 35% of the showdowns when called. Using the above procedure (which i dont know is right) with a 40% win is 118, which is probably more accurate.

I don't see myself averaging 118 by seeing a flop, but I think i'm leaning towards you guys after doing that math and thinking the variance tips the scales. Any comments? and please dbl check my math because i'm new and dont know what i'm doing [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]