FT Hand - Hero is a thief

[MLG]

yikes. just check behind on the turn and call a river bet. dont jeopardize your chip stack like this building a monster pot with 1 very meh pair.

[LearnedfromTV]

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yikes. just check behind on the turn and call a river bet. dont jeopardize your chip stack like this building a monster pot with 1 very meh pair.

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Really? There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed. Whatever he had Villain played it oddly. I think a bet is the best play given the flop action and turn check, and after the checkraise it's an easy fold.

I bet and, if called, check the river behind unimproved most of the time.

Edit - had Hero bet the flop, I would agree with a turn check.

[MLG]

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There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed.

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Checking the turn and calling/betting the river exploits all the things you point out, while getting rid of the risk of building a big pot.

[LearnedfromTV]

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There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed.

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Checking the turn and calling/betting the river exploits all the things you point out, while getting rid of the risk of building a big pot.

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A lot of hands that call the turn don't call the river.

Plus, there's a significant chance Villain has a hand like QJ that he's trying to check-fold if we would just let him.

Edit: I suppose it is tempting for Villain to bluff after we check behind twice, but I don't think he tries it often enough given that a lot of river cards could scare him as much as us and he has to think we call an 8K bet with a lot of hands after he checks twice.

[MLG]

so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

[LearnedfromTV]

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so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

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Besides the overcards, there's T9, 65, 54, diamonds, a weaker 7 or 66-44 that might get scared off by a broadway river (or may make it harder for you to value bet). J of diamonds on the river is the classic beat you or kill your action card, and there are many similar cards.

I'll agree, though, that your overcards bluff induce question is key and could tip me to being wrong. Have you done the math already?

Edit: worth noting here that JT/J9 have ten outs and T9 has 14, so in terms of pure overcard hands we're only talking about QJ-Q9, AQ-A9. Also, we have his kings reverse dominated, which is a slight push towards a check.

[MLG]

no, but lets do some simple calulating. there's 10k in the pot, now lets say that he bets 8k on the river when he hits (thats a big bet, but thats what hero bet so ill just use that). villain hits 6/42 and the time he hits it costs us 18k (10k in the pot + 8k we call). (6/42)(18)=2.6.

My gut says we make more than that, as its a small amount, but my pizza just got here and im hungry so im aborting the math.