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#11
11-13-2005, 01:48 PM
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Re: JJ in the small blind
[ QUOTE ]
What's he calling a 3-bet preflop with that you're beating if he calls your flop bet? I'm throwing out a bet on the flop and check/folding the turn or river unless a miracle happens. [/ QUOTE ] If he calls a flop bet, I'm almost assuredly behind. It's then a matter of whether I can get him to fold a better non-ace hand. -McGee 
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#12
11-13-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: JJ in the small blind
I don't think it is worth it. The combined probability that he has an A plus that he will stubbornly call down with his big pair is just too high. Assuming he has AK/AQ/AA-TT, you can do an analysis by combinations to see how often he has KK - JJ and then you can figure out how often he has to fold the turn for a turn bet (and then give up on the river) to be profitable). I think the answer will be he has to fold quite often, and I just don't see any evidence to suggest he is other than a showdown bound no fold em player.
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#13
11-13-2005, 04:47 PM
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Re: JJ in the small blind
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What's he calling a 3-bet preflop with that you're beating if he calls your flop bet? I'm throwing out a bet on the flop and check/folding the turn or river unless a miracle happens. [/ QUOTE ] If he calls a flop bet, I'm almost assuredly behind. It's then a matter of whether I can get him to fold a better non-ace hand. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] If he calls the flop bet he probably has an ace, considering those stats. KK or QQ usually caps preflop. I think most players who will call a flop bet with KK or QQ and an A on the board are going to call turn and river. If you really think he has KK or QQ, check-raise the flop is more likely to get him to fold.
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