Intresting proposal

[Paul2432]

I think in general accepting proposition bets like this is not a good idea. Your friend presumably had time to study the bet and determine it was a profitable wager. Why else would he make the offer? All good proposition bets appear to be reasonable but in fact offer very poor odds.

Paul

[FishHooks]

Nice Icon, gotta love that booty lol

[FishHooks]

You would think this is +EV since you get to pick the best starting hand, and you get to pick which hands you go up against. As long as you know how to figure the percentages of which hands would be the best to go up against your fine. Assuming you survive the first couple all-ins which should be easy since you pick the hands you go up against.

[Roscoe]

I played this "game" six times, and won twice. The last game I didn't lose a hand (I did, however, have a push...I had a poor hand and fortunately there was a duplicate. Even though there was a hand I did have the advantage with, I would rather take the draw and try to get a better "upper hand" next time.)

I would be tempted to take the 5:1 odds.

[Derek in NYC]

Can we see a mathematical or symbolic logic proof from somebody on this?

[PygmyHero]

Old thread that I am bumping / reviving.

I thought this was an interesting prop when I first read about it and I finally got around to trying it today. I did not play 10 matches - I might later, but I was excited to write something about the first one.

I won in 13 hands. I actually got lucky on the first hand when I had the poorest starting hand at the table. After that I busted out the other stacks pretty quickly. I twice had a pair against an underpair and usually could pick a dominated hand (one I outkicked), especially in the beginning. Near the end I twice had to go up against a better hand (losing both times), but by then I had most of the chips so I could afford a few losses. I had a 4:1 chip advantage when it got heads up. I lost one and won the second. Overall I won 9 hands and lost 4.

I think most of this has already been said before but there are several strategic considerations:
1) go in against the dominated hand if there is one
2) if you don't have a favorable matchup go against the smallest stack you can
3) in addition to considering your odds of beating a hand, calculate your EV (it may be correct to reduce your chances of winning a single hand but having greater EV by taking on a larger stack. e.g. I would take a 60% shot at a stack of $200 over an 80% shot at a stack of $100 - this is about what it would be if you had a big pair and could go against a $100 stack with a small pair or a $200 stack with one overcard)
4) keep in mind the dead cards (in other hands) - this may change the answer to point 1

No offense to the OP, but are you sure you considered all of this and played 'correctly' (odds wise)? One other question - its not clear from your post...to 'win' the bet do you just have to win 1 out of 10 or do you have to win the majority, or does he pay you 5:1 when you win and you pay him 1 when he wins (in which case you need to win 2 matches to break even)?

Okay, I'm going to try this again later. I'll write in the results then.

BTW- almost forgot - you made no mention of blinds. I assume you didn't have any, and I used none in my game, but let me know.

[FishHooks]

You totally have this challeged all messed up lol.
Things you got confused on
1. You get to pick you starting hand
2. all stack sizes are the same
3 you just have to have chips after all hands are played

(by the way didn't even think about the dead cards, HUGE advantage to be able to see the hands so you know what hands are really live and which are drawing dead +++++EV)

I'd take this prop bet anyday

[PygmyHero]

I'm a little bit confused by your response. I thought I did everything in accord with what the OP said about the bet. As I said, one question I had was about whether or not blinds were used.

I set up 10 stacks of 100 chips to start. I high carded for the button and then dealt out ten hands. My hand moved all in and I chose one of the other 9 hands to call. I am not under the impression that I can choose my hand (2 cards from the deck), nor my opponents. I am taking the hand I am dealt and selecting an opponent from the other 9 dealt hands. I then played the rest of the hands in an identical matter (and moving the button of course).

Although the stack sizes BEGIN at the same amount, that is not true as the game moves on. After I win the first hand (or lose - but then its all over) I have twice as much as any stack meaning that if I lose the next hand the game is not over.

Maybe the OP can clarify for us.

[PygmyHero]

My 2nd simulation:

I won 10 out of 11 hands and had a 9:1 chip lead when it was HU. I was able to go in with a dominating hand 10 times, losing one of these. The other win was a pair (for me) versus two overs and the pair held up. In other words I was the favorite in every hand, often by a lot.

OP, if your friend will pay me 5:1 ask him when I can start doing this bet with him.

I'm not so much convinced its EV+ because I've won twice as because of the hand situations which come up (I've typically dominated the hand matchups in both simulations). I know, sample size too small...

[PygmyHero]

Okay, this will probably be my last post on this matter since it doesn't seem to interest many others.

I ran 10 simulations, winning 5 and losing 5.

Overall I played 94 hands, winning 63 of them, good for 67%. I lost 27 of them (29%), and split the other 4 (4%).

I twice lost on the first hand, once on the third hand (losing hands two and three), and the rest of the time I got heads up (losing twice HU).

I found it interesting that I got heads up 8 times. Three times I got HU with a 9:1 chip advantage 3 times, and I had a 4:1 chip advantage the other 4 times.

Some general observations:
I usually could dominate a hand, especially in the early going. As a result I won a disproportionate number of hands early.
HU was pretty much a crap shoot. I won about half the hands (as we would expect), and managed to twice lose with a 9:1 chip advantage.
It was very important to see the other hands at the table (as opposed to just picking any two cards from the deck to play against). For example, I had 55 and my best two choices for opponents were 65o and A5o. I opted to play against the A5o since another hand had a pair of aces (meaning the A5o has exactly 1 card to beat me - barring improbable straights, flushes, double paired boards, etc.). In contrast there were 3 live sixes. Thus I am better off playing against the A5o.

Anyway, I found this game very interesting.