limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

[Buzz]

Knoll - Thanks. I appreciate your views too.

Is Hero stuck calling with top set on the river or not? In my humble opinion, it depends on a whole bunch of things, but in general, I’m very inclined to call a single bet on the river when I have top set.

Assuming Hero does plan to call on the river when he does not improve top set and when a straight becomes possible, and considering bluff pick-offs, in the example hand/board, Hero gains by initiating fresh money into the pot on the third betting round. But using Chaos’s values of 3/44 and 3/44, which seem not unreasonable, Hero does not gain very much by betting or raising with top set (plus the nut flush draw) on the turn.
{my math: 4*11/44 + 1*8/44 - 2*25/44 = (44+8-50)/44 = +2/44}.

In a pre-flop-loose game of limit-Omaha-8, I think you view top set as a drawing hand. (This is obviously a very different situation from Texas hold 'em). An important difference between top set failing to improve and a flush or straight draw failing to improve in a limit Omaha-8 game is that you’re not tempted to call a bet on the fourth betting round with only a four-flush or a four-straight. But with top set, well... you still have top set, which often wins even when the river enables a straight or flush. (Top set is going to beat anything worse than a straight).

But without also the nut flush draw or something equally compelling, my current thinking is Hero generally probably does better just limping with top set on the turn. And if that’s true of top set, I think it’s even truer of any other high draw.

A made straight or better is different. But with just a draw for high, even if your draw is the top set, depending on the exact situation, I think you probably do better by playing passively on the third betting round.

Just my opinion.

Buzz