Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[Nomad84]

I apologize up front for the excessive length of this post. I wrote this recently, and have been debating over whether or not to post it. You can skip the first two paragraphs if you like. They mostly give you a little bit of my background along with a little bit of work history/job options stuff.

First I should probably give you a little background about me. I have always been an overachiever. I'm a perfectionist. I try to challenge myself, but in doing so, I don't give myself enough of a break to just relax. In middle school, I started taking more advanced classes (mainly in math) and I finished my high school's math curriculum freshman year. I went to a different school during my junior year, where I took much more advanced courses in math and science. I had spent a lot of my time studying and doing homework before that, but that year was way more than I cared to work, so I went back to my home high school to take things easy and enjoy my senior year. During that year, I took several college courses. I ended up graduating high school with 46 hours of college credit.

The summer after graduation, I had a wreck, which forced me to miss a semester of college. Since then, I've been at OU studying mechanical engineering. I've always been interested in building things, designing things, and understanding how things work. I've had an internship the past two summers, so I've seen how their engineers work and what they do during the course of a normal work week. I didn't like what I saw. I don't want to work 50-60 hrs/wk fixing broken equipment. I could do it, and I could make decent money at it, but it doesn't interest me much. Ultimately, I think I would like to work for NASA or some sort of aerospace company. I can't say for sure though, since I don't know enough about exactly what it would be like working there. Even so, I am pretty sure I would enjoy working there. I am very interested in space and the related technology. In fact, I'd probably be willing to work there for very low pay as long as it covered my expenses. I would probably stand a much better chance getting a job there if I had a master's degree, but I haven't really looked into it enough to know for sure. I am somewhat interested in getting a master's just for the sake of learning, but I haven't done much about it. I will graduate from OU in May 2006, but I don't have any real plans for getting a job (I should be looking now) or going to grad school (should have already made plans). I'm looking into a couple of options with the Air Force (civilian) or the Navy (officer), but I'm not sure that's what I want to do. I figured the AF deal would probably be a good stepping stone to working with NASA eventually.

Right now, I'm at a point where I just really don't know for sure what I want to do with my life. That brings me to poker. I don't have any delusions of playing poker long term, but I think it might be best for me after I graduate. I am seriously considering taking a semester or two off of school to play poker, travel, and enjoy life for a little while. After that, unless I am making lots and lots of money playing poker, I think I want to go to grad school. I just feel like I need a break. Aside from my semester that I spent laid up in front of the TV unable to move without hurting my arm (after my wreck), I haven't had any significant amount of time to relax and enjoy life since middle school. I think part of my problem is that I try too hard at most everything I do. I don't really allow myself to half-ass anything. In a way, I think that keeping this "semester long break" or "year long break" frame of mind will allow me to give pro poker a shot without any substantial strings attached.

I've read Ed's "Going Pro" articles. I think I fit his criteria well:

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1. You have no dependants. You have no children, parents, significant others, or otherwise whose lives will be adversely affected if you end up broke. I’m not saying that going pro is impossible if you do have dependants, but my advice in these articles is inappropriate for someone who supports others.

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Check.

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2. You have a Plan B. If you do go broke, do you have an alternate plan? Can you easily pick back up where you left off with your old job? These articles are for you only if leaving your job will not set you back significantly should you fail as a pro.

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I have no job now. I don't think it would be significantly more difficult to get a job in the future than it would be immediately after graduation, but I'm not sure about this. Also, as I said, I would like to go to grad school anyway, I think.

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3. You are healthy with no chronic problems or risk factors. Jobs usually provide health insurance, and playing poker does not. While you should buy health insurance on your own as a professional, your insurance probably won’t be as good or economical as what you would get with work. Don’t play games with your health.

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I am young and in good health. If I need routine health care, I believe I can get it at a relatively low price because I am Chickasaw, but I need to look into this. I used to be quite a bit overweight, and I still am to some extent, but I have changed my eating and exercise habits and lost quite a bit of weight. This should have positive effects on my health as well.

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4. You really want to play poker for a living. You want to play poker fulltime because you love the game and hope to spend more time playing. You aren’t looking for a quick or easy buck. You play poker for fun first and money second.

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I enjoy it a lot. I don't know if I enjoy it enough to play it for the rest of my life, but that isn't my goal.

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5. You already play fairly well. You don’t have to play particularly well to be a professional these days. This is one area where old material on going pro is obsolete. Three years ago, you had to be quite a good player to generate enough income to live on. Now, with online play and so many terrible players, you merely have to play decently to generate significant income. But you do have to be a winning player.

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I don't have enough hands at my current level to be able to say for sure what my win rate is, but I am confident that I am a winning player and that I play significantly better than my competition. One of my goals for the next semester is to more up a couple of levels, hopefully, and to put in more hands to confirm my ability.

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Specifically, I have in mind a young, single person with relatively few expenses. If you quit your job, you can find an equivalent after six months to a year of layoff with relatively little trouble. Your response to the idea going through every dime you have is, “Oh well, I guess I’ll just have to go get a job,” not, "That would be a disaster."

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That pretty much sums it up.

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I feel that long-term success as a poker pro requires strength in four areas:

1. Financial Planning
2. Self Discipline
3. Emotional Control
4. Playing Ability

The first three are truly crucial, and they are mostly what I will discuss in this series of articles. Nowadays, most failures can be attributed to deficiencies in the first three areas: A mediocre player who is otherwise completely solid will likely succeed.

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I've always been pretty tight with my money, and I am very confident in my money management ability. I have enough money right now that I could make it for a year without doing anything at all if I wanted to, so I won't be in bad shape if I lose my bankroll. I have no college loans to worry about. My parents paid for my car, but I will begin making the payments after I graduate. That will only take about 15 more payments at around $400. I have no other debt that to worry about. My conservative estimate is that I can get by comfortably on $2000/month, plus taxes and savings. I don't expect to have any problems making 50% more than that easily, which will help with my savings goals. If I do well enough, I'd like to go to Europe for a couple of months while I still can (read: while I don't have a job to worry about). I think that my self discipline and emotional control are good. Losing sucks, but I don't feel that I let it get to me. I don't expect the first three points to be any problem for me.

I don't have enough experience to know where I stand in terms of playing ability. All I know is that I am capable of winning up to the 3/6 level. I play 5/10 now, but I only have about 2500 hand so far, so I can't say for sure what I am capable of there. So far, I feel that I have a definite advantage over the opponents that I have played. I would like to play higher than that, and I am being more aggressive about moving up that I was in the past. I don't know the level of play at the higher limits, but I suspect that I can make it at least one or two levels higher before I hit a wall, and possibly more than that. Regardless, I think I can earn enough money playing the 3/6 to live on, even if I can't hack it at the higher levels.

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If you play well and plan well, you have a great chance to succeed. Never forget that.

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I am confident that I can succeed at playing professionally for at least a year, which will probably be my goal if I decide to go through with it, but I am still not sure that it's what I am going to do. What I am really looking for is a discussion of why I should or should not give it a shot. What effect will this have on my life as an engineer, if I do in fact decide to get a "real" job afterwards? What about grad school? What are the cons of being a professional? (I know most of the pros of it.)

How should I approach my parents about it? They already know that I play a lot and that I'm fairly successful at it. Of course, they were skeptical when I first started, but they've begun to accept the fact that maybe I actually can make money at this. I think that they would be supportive, but I think that they would be very concerned at the same time. I talk to my mom regularly, and I tell her how I'm doing. I've been making good money over the last couple of weeks. Everytime I talk to her, it seems like I'm up another few hundred bucks. She jokingly asked "What are you going to school for again?" last time I talked to her, but I'm not sure how she'd take it if I just said, "You know, you're right." If I decide to go through with this, when should I tell them? I'm thinking it might be best if I waited until I have more hands in so that I can show them more data (graphs, etc.) to support the decision. Also, if you know of any other great threads or articles besides Ed's, please let me know. I would also like suggestions on books to read regarding playing professionally. I believe that Gambling Theory and Other Topics has some related content. Is this correct?

Thank you for reading this far. I would appreciate any thoughts and input you have on this.