Pot Odds Question

[AH-TitanFan]

Hi everybody,

Here is my first post! How do you calculate pot-odds for a re-raise?

For example . . . there are 10 small bets pre-flop. After the flop, someone raises (now 11 small bets). To call you would need better than 11:1 pot odds. Which translates to 4 (or more) outs to win. How would you calculate the number of outs needed to raise? Would you add your "raise bets" into the total pot, for purposes of calculating pot odds? (i.e. 13:2 ~ 6.5:1 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img])

P.S. Before we get too complicated with the implied odds that the original raiser will call, the action on 4th and 5th street . . . etc. I just want to make sure I understand the basic math behind the decision to raise/call.

[slavic]

You have a few things kind of intermixed here.

Just to be clear. We have a pot of 11sb on the flop.

Someone bets into you there are now 12sb in the pot.

Your pot odds are 12 to 1, you risk 1 bet to win 12.

So if you are behind and you feel your 4 outs could improve to win you would call because the pot is offering you better than 4:43 (1:10.75) odds to win on the next card.

We do not really need pot odds to evaluate if we should raise, that comes under the heading of pot equity. In other words the share of the pot that I expect to win over time. So let's say I have a flush draw on the flop and I evaluate that my flush draw will win the pot if I hit it. Someone bets, another person call, then I should raise.

Why? Well my flush draw has odds of 1:1.86, and for every dollar I put in the pot two other players are putting in dollars. So I make ~$0.15 every time they call. Notice we don't care how large the pot is(we actually do care how large the pot is but it's not as critical here).

There are also many other reasons to raise and your best source for an excellent explanation would be The Theory of Poker by 1 D Sklansky.

[AH-TitanFan]

Hmm, I'm getting closer to understanding. . .

I am reading, "Small Stakes Hold'em" and there is an example on pg. 96 that I find puzzling. Here is roughly the scenario.

You are late-postion with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and there 10 bets/5 players pre-flop.

The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

The preflop raiser (mid position), raises on the flop. Three people stll act after you. The pot odds are 11:1 (correct me if I am wrong), so calling had a positive expectation, however raising is the correct play. I am trying to figure out why I should raise, and here is my thinking . . .

The pre-flop raiser probably has something like AJ, and has made a pair on the flop. For us to win we need either a Q, a 7 or we need to hit the backdoor flush draw. (assuming our opponent does not have two [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s) So there are 3 Q's, 2 7's or two consecutive hearts that can hit for the win. Assuming the pair of Jacks will call our raise (if nobody calls we win the hand), we will get pot odds of 14:2 ~ 7:1. We have 2 chances to hit either the Q or the 7 (giving 5*1.5 = 7.5 outs), and the backdoor draw is worth roughly 1.5 outs, for a total of about 9 outs. With 9 outs we need pot odds of 4.1:1 or better to profit, and since 7 > 4.1 the raise is profitable.

Is this correct reasoning as to why a raise is the best option?

[Crooked Paul]

Without getting into all the math of your question (someone else can explain that better), raising has two things going for it here.

First, you don't want to be in this pot five-handed, if for no other reason than those other players still have some chance to win. Facing a raise and a reraise, chances are those three will fold, and knocking them out eliminates their chances, improving the chance to win for both you and the pre-flop raiser.

Second, you can refine your read on the pre-flop raiser and maybe even knock him out. What if he raised with QJ suited? He might read your reraise here as AJ/KJ or even trip 7s and give up the pot. Even if he doesn't, his call gives you some more info.


Crooked

[slavic]

There are a couple of things going on in this hand.

First the pot is large and that's key. Second we know that a call is right, and a fold is wrong. THe question is will a raise be better?

We can raise for several reasons:
1) Get more money in the pot (not likely what we want here)
2) Knock other people out
3) Get a free card on the next betting round
4) bluff(we aren't going to bluff in large 5 handed pots)

I believe what Ed is getting at is raising here will knock other people out, and possibly get this pot to heads up.

Why is that good?

Well let's say you have an 15% chance of winning and the original better has a 40% chance with 5 players. Your raise to heads up makes you closer to a 30% favorite and him a 70% favorite. Your expectation from what you will get out of the pot is now higher than the extra bet you put in. In otherwords you benefit even though you like don't have the best hand.

Now my percentages are really rough, but we could deal out real world hands and show were this situation comes up quite a bit, though it does happen a little more often in stud.