Question about SNGs and fluctuation

[Chaostracize]

I have a friend who is a very good SNG player. I say this after having talked about numerous hands with him and seen him play. He is currently playing the 215s.

I was just informed that over 5,000 SNGs he has an ROI of 6%. I think before any conclusions can be made regarding skill that more the person in question should play more SNGs, but he disagrees stating that the 6% is an accurate represntation of his skill and he just isn't good enough to be playing at the level he's been playing at for months.

Is there a satisfactory conclusion that anyone can come to?

I know this really comes down to a simple variance and bell curve post, but I think that this player has simply been getting unlucky and over the course of another 1-5k games his ROI should be easily around 15%.

Thoughts?

[pearljam]

6% ROI over 5,000 tournaments at 200+15's is very good.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
6% ROI over 5,000 tournaments at 200+15's is very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

response 1 for this thread:

no, it's not.

it's making an ok amount of money, it's not even close to "very good"

citanul

[Chaostracize]

That, both player in question and I, agree with.

[citanul]

I think:

a) your friend is "good enough" to play those games, especially considering it's stilll possible for him to improve (clearly)

b) i think that he likely should not be playing those games if he hates large swings

c) i think you are not qualified to be judging what a 215s player's ROI is

d) i think that oh, some other randomly chosen metric, like his ROI, is much more likely to tell you his ROI than your randomly chosen one of "pull a number out of a hat"

e) i think that since (a) implies he can still learn (there are after all players who beat those games for more than 6% and likely (b) is true, that since your friend believss he shouldn't be playing those games, he likely should move down and play lower, and work on his game.

f) it sounds like your friend *is* interested in getting his game better. that's a good thing. if moving down is the way he wants to do it, more power to him. it sounds like he's thought about this possibly more than you.

that's response 2 for this thread.

citanul

[Chaostracize]

50% of the time I like you. The other 50% I think you're a big dick.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
50% of the time I like you. The other 50% I think you're a big dick.

[/ QUOTE ]

which time are we on right now?

citanul

edit; it's funny, because about 50% of the time i'm a nice guy, and 50% of the time i'm a big dick, but sometimes when i am one of those ways, i have to bluff the other way, just to mix it up. keeps them guessing. if your bluffing percentage isn't all that right, your opponents start to peg you pretty good, and that's no good.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50% of the time I like you. The other 50% I think you're a big dick.

[/ QUOTE ]

which time are we on right now?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost posted this exact same reply, but I knew that you would.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
50% of the time I like you. The other 50% I think you're a big dick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. But I think you already knew that... or dont care. One or the other.

[Chaostracize]

This was a good post. Now I like you. You bastard.