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#1
06-10-2005, 10:31 PM
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What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
I posted this in the heads-up section but few there had any info on the subject, and one suggested the people here could help, so I'll try again:
I have just started playing heads-up SNG's after I beat a friend of mine in three straight heads-up matches (he plays far higher stakes then me and my beating him inspired me to play more)... I am curious what kind of win percentage is "standard" at $10 heads-up no limit hold-em sng's and higher... As far as my background (if that makes any difference) I have been a winning online player at low stakes nl hold-em (up to .25/.50). I have had 13 straight winning months in a combination of 6 max and full table ring games at various online sites. I have not moved up to higher limits because the $600-$900 a month I make at the low stakes is very much needed as a supplement to my income. I only play a few (say 4 or 5) multi-table tournaments a month and I have a pretty solid record at them (I usually play tournaments with buy-ins between $10-$30) and I have had two big $1,200+ cashes as well as several other small cashes... So far I have played about 50 of these $10 heads-up matches and I have a 70% win percentage which seems really high... Should I now move up to the $20 games or do I need a bigger sample size? At full ring games and tournaments I am a very tight aggressive player, but at these heads-up matches I am super aggressive. I raise the pot 80% of the time from the button and often bluff at big pots when I sense weakness... So, am I just on a hot streak, when should I move up, will my hyper aggressive style work at higher levels? So far I just feel like I am in full control of virtually every match I have been in, and only general variance (other guy getting great cards) are the reasons I have lost those 30% of the time... There really has only been one or two opponents that I have played that I felt were as good as me or better... So, what is a standard win rate for $10 heads-up matches and higher??? Thanks in advance for any posts... - 
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#2
06-10-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
You need a bigger sample.
The standard win rate for any heads SNG is 50% (by definition). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#3
06-10-2005, 10:44 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
[ QUOTE ]
The standard win rate for any heads SNG is 50% (by definition). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] - Well, I assumed you would know what I meant... In other words, what is the average winning percentage for winning players??? I would just guess it's 60%-66%, is that about right? -
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#4
06-11-2005, 03:16 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
I'm still hoping for more comments,,, anyone?
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#6
06-11-2005, 04:54 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there are enough people playing HU enough times to have anything other than a small sample size. I could be wrong though. [/ QUOTE ] you usually are [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in all seriousness, stars offers heads up sngs. there were several posters here (i believe dfscott was one of them) who played a bunch of them in an effort to improve their heads up play.
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#7
06-11-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
nice 2+2 handle [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#8
06-11-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
[ QUOTE ]
you usually are [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ]Uh huh. Meet me in person and you're already busting my chops. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] in all seriousness, stars offers heads up sngs. there were several posters here (i believe dfscott was one of them) who played a bunch of them in an effort to improve their heads up play. [/ QUOTE ]Oh yeah, I know that. Even the dreaded UB offers them. What I was getting at was that people get yelled at for looking at results in SNGs numbering less than 500 and that's a lot of HU SNGs to play especially since there's not much money to be made so not as much incentive to multi-table and whatnot. Has anyone even played 500 HU SNGs? Anyone? Beuller?
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#9
06-11-2005, 09:01 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
[ QUOTE ]
there's not much money to be made so not as much incentive to multi-table and whatnot. [/ QUOTE ] I've been playing some head's up SNG's lately (not nearly enough to come to anything but anecdotal conclusions) and I've been trying to decide if they're worth it or not. I'm going to throw out some observations... - Profitability: The biggest problem is that Head's Up (on Stars anyway) seems to really top out at the $50 level. You don't see a lot of games going higher than that. So like a lot of non-NL Hold'em games, there's a definate ceiling as far as buy-in levels. In addition, multi-tabling them would be difficult. I'd expect a multi-tabler would be able to play, at most, half his usual tables. ie: a 4-tabler would probably be looking at 2-tables to start with. So it'd be difficult to get the kind of hourly rate as would be found at $200 full table SNG's. OTOH, tournaments are usually much, much shorter. Virtually all my tournaments have been done by level 4, and often sooner (I've won one tournament on the first hand) A 70% win-rate translates to a 33% ROI which is pretty solid, particularly if you can average 30 mins a tourney. Which makes this a viable option for low-mid buyin players. - Variance: I keep going back and forth on whether variance should be better or worse... A string of Head's Up 1sts won't have the huge positive effect on your bankroll that a string of 10-player 1sts will have while a string of OTM's will drop you almost as much. However, it should be pretty rare to loose 5 Head's Up matches in a row (let alone 10 or more) unless you're playing above your skill level. So it's probably a toss-up with Head's Up play rewarding consistant play because a big win won't make up for the mistakes that cost you the last couple tournaments. Given that it should be a lot less likely for you to drop a bunch of buy-ins, you probably don't need as big a bankroll as for 10-player SNG's. - Skill: I've yet to have a Head's Up tourney turn into a Party-style all-in fest, and the only times I've had to start pushing is when I've been <T1000. I think the blind structure greatly favours the better player and I'd venture to say win rates of 70%+ are very sustainable, however, table selection (which is difficult given how quickly tournaments start) would be key. I've played $5's, $10's and $20's (I normally play $10 and $20 10-player SNGs depending on bankroll/confidence) and if anything Head's Up tourney's may be more formulaic. About 80% of players are too tight, never raise pf except with monsters and can be bullied, particularly pf. The other 20% are LAGs who can be trapped if you're patient. In addition, there aren't so many chips in play so you're never that far behind (No T200 vs T5000 situations) or that far ahead and with the typical weak play, comebacks are always possible (I've come back to win from T60 after a Level 1 all-in disaster) I also think that due to the perceptions on profitability, there are very few sharks playing head's up tournaments regularly which makes them potentially even more profitable, particularly if sharks can keep out of each others way through table selection. - Psychology: I find it a lot easier to maintain my concentarions playing Head's Up torney's, particularly since depending on the Villain you may be involved in better than 60% of hands. The big downside is that specialising in Head's Up tournaments is going to help your overall poker game even less than regular SNGs. Or is it? I don't think it's going to help your Limit/NL ring game much, but, it may help your middle and late MTT and SNG game, where the table tightens up as the blinds raise, stealing becomes common and pots are often head's up (of course it'll help you anything you wind up heads up in an MTT or SNG) particularly in MTTs where post-flop play in these situations can be key...
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#10
06-11-2005, 09:19 PM
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Re: What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??
[ QUOTE ]
The big downside is that specialising in Head's Up tournaments is going to help your overall poker game even less than regular SNGs. [/ QUOTE ] This is definitely not true IMO. I think that HU, especially if you go a bit higher than the really low buy-ins, can seriously improve your overall NL skills, more than normal SNGs for that matter. Reasons: much more post-flop play (this is an understatement), much more read-dependent play - as with tactical decisions regarding specific hands, and strategical ones regarding specific opponents.
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