Sweet suicide

[chumdawg]

"I don't know how he could have such a great read to know that one pair was good on the flop, yet somehow think that the A on the turn had hit one of us."

Maybe he put you squarely on AK. Since that's pretty much the same as what you had, right?

While all this flop and turn action was going on, what did you think you were representing? I know you said that they didn't seem very good at reading hands. What do you think they thought you held?

[AceHiStation]

Would have been enjoyable to get the call out of KK and take the hand down with the worst of it.

Nice read, nice hand, good luck trying to replicate this ever again... but I think thats the beauty of it.

[arod15]

Ballsy prob not going to work out well. ANd yes it was suicide although u had a chance at the parchute working if the flush fell/

Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit. Your great reads told you he had a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, and two overs. I suppose pot odds dictated a call anyway.

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Uh, no.

[jsmith5]

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit. Your great reads told you he had a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, and two overs. I suppose pot odds dictated a call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving stats from the flop. Taking the KK out the equation the Jd8d is 52.4% to win the hand vs. 4d5d. However, on the turn, 4d5d becomes the favorite 56.8%. He does still have to dodge 7 diamonds and 6 non-diamond cards (2 eights, 2 jacks, 2 queens, and 2 sevens). That's a lot of outs, but in the long run a play that makes money because our hero made his move on the turn, not on the flop.

I LOVE this hand. It helps my thinking go to a whole other level. But I would like to hear if cero_z has some examples of where this high level of thinking has backfired on him by similar moves, just to help us all understand the complexity of deep-stack play.

[cero_z]

Hi jsmith,

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to hear if cero_z has some examples of where this high level of thinking has backfired on him by similar moves

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't think of a specific example, but this sort of thing backfires occasionally. Most of the time, the mistake I make is incorrectly predicting an opponent's response to my raise, though I have predicted his holding 100% accurately. So, in this hand, I would've been completely [censored] if the KK had not folded. I knew he had a strong hand weaker than a set, and assumed he would fold it. But obviously, I didn't expect him to have KK there in the first place, and had I been in his position (not having raised once in about 5 opportunities), my one-pair hand would've hit the muck about three chances ago. I don't make this mistake often anymore, but I had to learn it the hard way (through lots of failed "brilliant" bluffs).

[ QUOTE ]
ANd yes it was suicide although u had a chance at the parchute working if the flush fell/


[/ QUOTE ] --arod

No! With a pair and a flush draw, this play would be a pretty standard semi-bluff. I termed this play "suicide," because I knew there was not only a better hand out, but also a better flush draw. If the SB hadn't folded, I would've been in a terrible spot. Everything hinged on getting him out.

[ QUOTE ]
Good job dodging any Q,J,8,7, and the 7 remaining diamonds (19 outs). He was actually the one with the "made" hand here, as his draw was so big that he is a favourite to hit.

[/ QUOTE ] --xTKOx

Please read more carefully before you make a statement like this.

[ QUOTE ]
While all this flop and turn action was going on, what did you think you were representing? I know you said that they didn't seem very good at reading hands. What do you think they thought you held?

[/ QUOTE ]--chumdawg

Just to be clear, I feel that my actions clearly represented a set or two pair. From my opponents' perspectives, my hand was not good enough to re-raise with pre-flop, but after the T 9 4 r flop, I raised and re-raised at every opportunity. IMO, this looks nothing like AK (or AT, which is maybe what you meant).

[jsmith5]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi jsmith,

I can't think of a specific example, but this sort of thing backfires occasionally. Most of the time, the mistake I make is incorrectly predicting an opponent's response to my raise, though I have predicted his holding 100% accurately. So, in this hand, I would've been completely [censored] if the KK had not folded. I knew he had a strong hand weaker than a set, and assumed he would fold it. But obviously, I didn't expect him to have KK there in the first place, and had I been in his position (not having raised once in about 5 opportunities), my one-pair hand would've hit the muck about three chances ago. I don't make this mistake often anymore, but I had to learn it the hard way (through lots of failed "brilliant" bluffs).

[/ QUOTE ]

I really appreciate your reply. And that's actually the reason why I asked. Just last night I made a move against an opponent when an A was on board (I had done a good job of representing AK), and he kept trying to talk himself into folding since he "knew" I had a A. Finally in the end he said "well, why not" and called me with pocket QQ when I pushed on the turn with a semi-bluff flush draw. I feel like I have a great ability to put my opponent on a hand, but a very difficult time predicting their reaction. He was simply playing his hand because he had a big pocket pair and was not read-based at all. If anything, he did the opposite of what his "read" was, and even said after the hand "wow, I really thought you had AK" (as did everyone else at the table). Instead of screaming, "then why didn't [bleeping] fold!?" I merely tapped the table and told him "nice hand."

Any advice on how to predict an opponent's reaction?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Any advice on how to predict an opponent's reaction?

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously I'm not a plyer of OP's caliber. But I think this really comes from experience and from paying attention to your reads. If you were really honest with yourself and paying attention carefully, then it probably would have been apparent to you that this was not the right guy to run a bluff on. You can't bluff a bad player.

[Voltron87]

Hi cero, i would fold this on the flop after the first reraise.

later!