River of Death

[crego20]

Everyone is saying call and lose. You can be pretty sure you are behind here most of the time, so the question is how often is the TAG betting a worse hand than second pair into 2 others on this river? If it isn't greater than 1 time in 11 this is a clear fold, you also have to discount the 1 in 11 for the times Button hits his hand and I think this becomes a pretty easy fold.

[Bodhi]

Hero's getting 12:1. Are you a deity who can divine which cards he has with 95% accuracy? No? Then call. You'll catch a bluff often enough here for calling to be +EV.

[baronzeus]

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Hero's getting 12:1. Are you a deity who can divine which cards he has with 95% accuracy? No? Then call. You'll catch a bluff often enough here for calling to be +EV.

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I'm a deity and I say he's good less than 8% of the time.

[Entity]

Looks like a fold to me.

[molawn2mo]

fwiw, i was watching your table during this hand.

on the river, you thought long and hard (20 seconds, maybe) or maybe you were involved in one of your other tables, but to me it looked like you wanted to fold it.

what was your thinking?

getting donked on the river with 2 to act after you, imho, requires a fold on your part. K plus the backdoor flush coming in is too much to call. yeah, you can say that you would fold if there was a raise bit, seriously, this appeared to me to be an easy fold.

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I don't think you have a lot to worry about. I bet you still have the best hand here. Now if it was a ace, I'd be more worried. Didn't Miller say in SSHE that people tend to play (and hold onto) ace-rag more often then king-rag?

I could be wrong, but I'd say that this is sure value bet.

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Page 198:

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If the river is an overcard to your pair but does not complete a straight or a flush (e.g. you hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], the board on the turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and the river is the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), you should assume that you still have the best hand and bet. Except that if the overcard is an ace, you should be somewhat more concerned, as many players will automatically call to the river with ace-rag when they pair their kicker on the flop. Also, extremely poor players will call to the river with any ace, hoping just to spike that one pair.

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Page 203 (different situation, but worse):

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The K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a very scary card; it puts four to a straight and three to a flush on the board. The bettor probably drew out on the river. The caller could have a queen or small flush and be going for an overcall (or just be too timid to raise). Nevertheless, you should call. You are getting 12-to-1, so you need to win only eight percent of the time to profit. The bettor might be bluffing, or he might have improved to kings up. The caller could have made two pair or a pair (or worse -- some small stakes players make ridiculous calls). Usually, you will lose. You should win more than eight percent of the time, though, so call.

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Okay, maybe you should be worried, but dammit, this is still a necessary call. Yes, I realize that the king on the river completed a possible flush, but I still stand by my line.

[baronzeus]

he called two streets adn bet into you. if its checked to you it's a MUST BET situation but as it stands i'd say you're good here so un-often that laying it down is +EV (compared to calling) and -Variance.

[bugstud]

the point was an ace makes 2 pair for him...

[GMan42]

I don't have SSHE in front of me right now, but aren't both the examples you cite heads-up? I think the two players left to act totally change things here. Plenty of times you'll call the bet and not even get to show down your hand after a raise behind you. Easy, easy fold.

[baronzeus]

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the point was an ace makes 2 pair for him...

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and the fact that he told us to "value bet" the river.