$109s - JJ Hand

[freemoney]

hand becomes a billion times easier if u raise the flop, i dont fold this on the turn and i dont fold to a river blank if he pushes.

[Ryendal]

I'm not so sure about what I said. He could also bet 150 at the river to test your flush draw or to value his own flush.
So I'm confused, but the call is my line here

[freemoney]

yeah i agree with microbet i think jj is def ahead of villians range of hands.

[John Hurst]

I can't see folding on the turn with an overpair and a flush draw. I don't think min raising will give us much info about our hand. I call the turn bet and then it could get interesting because if we make the jack high flush it could be good against a flopped set.

[curtains]

Raise the flop

[adanthar]

I think you had the best hand on the flop for sure and should've raised then, but may be in trouble on the turn.

I wanna say call or minraise this, then shut down on any river. Trouble is, both draws got there and it looks like he either wants you to raise or hates the diamond but likes his hand enough to blocking bet.

I think you have to minraise, but I think it's a semibluff at best at this point very very often and you should've raised the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you had the best hand on the flop for sure and should've raised then, but may be in trouble on the turn.

I wanna say call or minraise this, then shut down on any river. Trouble is, both draws got there and it looks like he either wants you to raise or hates the diamond but likes his hand enough to blocking bet.

I think you have to minraise, but I think it's a semibluff at best at this point very very often and you should've raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the blocking bet theory, except that I don't know what it means we should do. He could blocking bet a set or 2 pair here after two draws complete--but maybe he's capable of doing it with AT--and tough to think what he'd fold if we play back. I think I fold entirely because it's early--dunno how I'd play this in a cash game though, other than raising the flop.

[Unarmed]

Alright well here were my thoughts during the hand:

UTG+1 has limped, called a raise, and now leads for slightly less than half pot into 3 opponents, one of which is the PF raiser. I put him on:

- 99/TT on a probe bet (12 ways)
- 22/66/88 (9 ways)
- Ax diamonds (say 4-7 ways if we remove AK/AQ)
- A8o (I really don't view this as likely without a read)

Anyway, he's leading into the field so he has to assume he's going to get popped back a good % of the time. Given this, why is he leading? Do most probe bettors do this into 3 opponents? If I was him making that bet I have Ax diamonds or a set 100% of the time and if I get popped back all my chips are going in the middle with either hand.

To those that want to raise, are we calling a push? I don't really like that given we're either already crushed by a set or flipping vs Ax diamonds (ahead of AT, but behind the combo draw Axs) Is a push just so unlikely here that I shouldn't be worried about it?

Anyway, I didn't want to call a push, and I wouldn't mind seeing what BB is up to (probably nothing but he wouldn't bet a hand out of the blinds anyway so who knows) so I decide to flat call and use my position to control the hand.

Note: I'm not loving this situation one bit and will happily release my jacks at any point if I feel I'm crushed.

Turn is the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and UTG+1 leads for 150. I am now ahead of 99, and possibly A8. The only hand I beat here that I can see leading out is Ad8o. 99 and A8o just check it to me, as I can't see them liking their hand enough to lead out. So, I'm beat... what now?

Well, I'm pretty sure he has me, so I'm not real interested in getting to a cheap showdown. If I'm going to continue with this hand I want to find out if he has the flush, and if he doesn't I want to put him to a decision on the river. I really like the min-raise idea, but if he checks the river I'm not checking behind only to be shown a set. So I like the min-raise, push river if checked to, fold if bet into line. I *think* flat calling the turn and betting the river is superior because it costs less and is probably nearly as scary. Also, flat calling the turn shows no aggression and virtually eliminates the chances of me being C/R'd on the river if he boats up.

Anyway, I folded because attempting to move random 109ers off sets isn't something I'm in the habit of doing. I think I agree with everyone that I should have raised the flop, it still just doesn't sit all that well with me for some reason.

[Scuba Chuck]

Your anlaysis is very deep.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, he's leading into the field so he has to assume he's going to get popped back a good % of the time. Given this, why is he leading? Do most probe bettors do this into 3 opponents? If I was him making that bet I have Ax diamonds or a set 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

These are my thoughts. But you have taken the rest to another level for me. Thanks for sharing.

The thing that got you (and me) here is that raising the flop gives you enough information - right? I don't like freemoneys approach of calling down. I'd rather invest the money on the flop.

One last thing. Is there any possibility these donkeys can play 97s (or 86s)?

[freemoney]

i clearly made it very obvious raising the flop was best.