Folding nutflush on river, -ev??

vipon · #1 06-26-2005, 12:43 AM

me and my friend are arguing. He says getting roughly 12:1 I should call this. Im saying with turn action there is no way he doesnt at LEAST have a pair. DO I make a "Crying Call" here anyways? Villain is 28/8/25/25

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 6 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (13.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.16 BB

newholdemguy · #2 06-26-2005, 12:54 AM

can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging)

i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE>

imported_leader · #3 06-26-2005, 12:54 AM

hmmmmm...I think I'd be more likely to fold if he had just called you 3-bet. Since he didn't he could have a smaller flush. Getting 14-1, I guess I'd call.

28/8/25/25 is 25 his AF that's almost unbelievable even over a small sample. If it is 25, you have to call.

imported_leader · #4 06-26-2005, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging)

i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE>

[/ QUOTE ]

6 posts in and you're already throwing around bombs and justifying your positions be telling people to read SSHE. You have a bright future.

Grease · #5 06-26-2005, 01:04 AM

I would call because there is a very small chance he has a smaller flush, and you are getting a huge overlay. Call, cry, and hope.

You only have to be right 7% or so of the time.

Notorious G.O.B. · #6 06-26-2005, 01:12 AM

I think there is a good chance he has a lower flush. I mean, considering the action on the turn, he was either already full, maybe had a queen and has quads, or has a flush. You pretty much have to call.

Skadet · #7 06-26-2005, 01:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you can safely rule out the Q here. The flat call says "drawing hand" to me. Thinking about it more, I think 66 is a possibility. A flat call gives you a chance to catch a spade.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless UTG is suicidal (or has 66), you're way ahead here. Also, this tells me - again - he doesn't have a Q.

[ QUOTE ]

River: (13.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm. A hard one. Either you're way ahead, or totally destroyed. Like I said before, I'm betting against the Q. 14:1 pot odds make it a tough lay-down.

I call. I'm thinking he has a lower flush, but if I'm beat I want to see that 66!

Jaskohouston · #8 06-26-2005, 02:05 AM

More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

chesspain · #9 06-26-2005, 02:11 AM

Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

ihardlyknowher · #10 06-26-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush.