Miscalculating chips needed late in supersatellite

[betgo]

Turbo supersatellite on Stars for Sunday tournament. I have T14K in 18th place of 33 with 22 seats and 23rd getting almost as much in cash. Blinds 2K/4K/200. I am in CO with Q9o. All the players to act have me covered but not by a lot. The BB has 18K. I push, figuring to steal enough chips to assure a seat. BB calls with AJo and busts me.

The play had a pretty good chance of assuring me a seat. I probably wasn't going to get called and I had a decent chance of winning the hand if I was.

I got real upset when I realized watching the later action that I would have only had to go through the blinds once at 3K/6K, so I could have folded my way in. The 2nd time the blinds went through wouldn't have gotten near hitting me. The blinds escalate rapidly due to the turbo structure and stalling.

I am a good supersatellite player, partly because I am good at strategy. However, I often wind up getting upset when I steal if I don't need to and get caught. On the other hand, sometimes I get blinded out just short of a seat, and I figure I should have stolen or played some fairly big hand I folded.

I haven't seen much discussion of these issues in this forum. Also not in HOH1 or McEvoy/Daugherties satellite book. How many chips you need seems real key to supersatellite play.

It varies a lot by the structure of the tournament. Also at higher buyins the big stacks will let the small stacks steal from them a lot, so these things can go on longer than you think, so you can't fold your way in as easily. If there are a lot of loose fish, people will bust themselves out, and you can play more conservatively. Also, sometimes there are aggressive big stacks who get to be huge stacks by bullying while everyone is trying to just get a seat. It can be hard to steal with these clowns playing sherrif, trying to bust people out.

[Exitonly]

i play those tournaments all the time... and 14k at that stage is usually enough, especially considering it's not uncommon to get a walk in the BB around then.

[locutus2002]

At that level 14K or 18K, you don't really know where you are at. If it was so clear then BB wouldn't have called.

I probably try to steal with Q9 to gain another orbit, I also probably call with AJo to clinch a seat.

[betgo]

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i play those tournaments all the time... and 14k at that stage is usually enough, especially considering it's not uncommon to get a walk in the BB around then.

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It seemed like such a good stealing situation with my hand, position, and the stacks of the players in front of me. With the blinds getting huge, I didn't figure I would really be able to steal later on from blinds who could fold.

Of course some people will risk a seat rather than fold AJo in the BB to a late position stealer, which is generally what I like about these satellites.

I haven't really figured out how much you need at different stages. Sometimes these go on for a while, as no one wants to challenge the short stacks. This one finished real quick.

I have found I do better in these since I started taking the approach of looking for steal situations to make sure I have enough chips, rather than just hoping to survive the blinds or hoping enough people would bust before I get blinded out. However, I really miscaluated here.