4 remaining

[rjamesd]

$40 buy-in tourney at a local card club
45 player NL HE freeze out
4 remaining
Payouts:
1st - $606
2nd - $334
3rd - $205
4th - $177

sb(200T) ME (2,250T)
bb(400T) JEFF (2,600T)
JOSH (6,900T)
button JEREMY (1,750T)

JOSH folds
JEREMY pushes all-in
ME (A6o) ?

I am the newbie at the table. Both JEFF and JEREMY are very good, semi-pro players. I am very afraid to tangle with either. JOSH is a good player, but capable of making mistakes. He got very lucky twice earlier at the final table to accumulate his big chip lead.

what should I do and why?

[EnderIII]

I'd fold, quite possibly dominated by a larger ace. Much better to be the aggressor and put your opponent to the test. You don't have that much at risk in your small blind, and while you are short stacked, so is everyone but the chip leader.

[Lurshy]

I fold this.

If he pushes with any Ace, you are likely dominated, If he does this with any pair, you are seriously behind. I would wait until I had a better hand to 'call' an all-in.

If you had a read, that he was stealing with any two, it gets closer, but you are not far ahead of a random hand, and there is still one more to act. So still probably a fold.

[mntbikr15]

Well first off ur missing the crucial piece of info of what the blinds are at. This would way slightly on my decision.

Most likely though this is a clear fold. As was mentioned ur likely behind to any ace, and any pair. Even a hand like KJs or JQs ur still close to a coin flip.

But yea, short of being less then 5-6 BB I fold this and wait for a better spot.

[rjamesd]

I'm pretty sure I made the wrong play, but I pushed. Here's my thinking (please point out any specific errors):
The difference between 4th and 3rd is very small ($28).
Both JEFF and JEREMY are way better than me. If we are even in chips, then chances are I end up in 4th anyway. If I fold, now I’m the short stack against a superior field. Even if I hang on to take 3rd, I gain $28.
If I lose this hand I’m not out, but basically done. If I win, I’ve eliminated a very good player and have a significant chip lead on the other good player. So now I have good chance at second and the chip leader is someone that I may be able to beat. So now I’m playing for first.

JEREMY is definitely pushing any ace or any pair. Considering that I have one ace,
1)if he’s got A(2-5) {12*4 = 48 combinations} I’m in good shape
2)if he's got 22-55{24 possible combinations} I’m about 50/50
3)if he's got 66-AA {8*6+3 = 51 combinations} or AK-A7 {12*7 = 84 combinations} I’m in bad shape
48/207 = 23%
24/207 = 12%
135/207 = 65%

And I feel that he limps with AA and KK (maybe QQ), so maybe the actual odds are slightly better for me.

So, almost 30% of the time, I feel like I’m playing for first.

RESULTS (not that they matter): I pushed, JEREMY turned over A-5 (hooray!) I knocked him out, then a few hands later I knocked JEFF out. I pulled even with the chip leader. We made a deal to give 2nd $400 and play for the rest. Two hands later we got all our money in. I had Aqs. He had 44. The fours held up.

[rjamesd]

blinds are 200/400 it was in the original post, but maybe not clear ;-)

thanks for your comments

[revots33]

Glad the play worked out, but I don't agree with your reasoning.

[ QUOTE ]
The difference between 4th and 3rd is very small ($28).

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes but you are playing to win, no?

[ QUOTE ]
Both JEFF and JEREMY are way better than me. If we are even in chips, then chances are I end up in 4th anyway. If I fold, now I’m the short stack against a superior field. Even if I hang on to take 3rd, I gain $28.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like defeatist thinking to me. You're currently ahead of Jeremy and almost even with Josh... so why assume you couldn't beat them? What is this "superior field"? It's not as if you couldn't take a hand off them. Besides, even if you are CONVINCED you couldn't beat these 2 guys (a silly way to think if you ask me), maybe you'd double up through the chip leader.

[ QUOTE ]
If I lose this hand I’m not out, but basically done. If I win, I’ve eliminated a very good player and have a significant chip lead on the other good player. So now I have good chance at second and the chip leader is someone that I may be able to beat. So now I’m playing for first.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're playing for first ALREADY, aren't you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Don't let yourself get so psyched out by "superior players". Play your game and play to win. Continued good luck!