AA: Cap or Fold?

[SamIAm]

This hand's from a live game a couple days ago. It's small stakes, but the the table was full of good players. Playing 8-handed.

UTG is pretty smart. He has good preflop strategy and is decent postflop. UTG+1 is definitely a smart player; he's read WLLH and SSH, and I respect his play.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB. UTG <font color="red">raises</font>, UTG+1 cold-calls. Everybody folds to me. I <font color="red">3-bet</font>. UTG thinks for a long time, looks at me, looks at UTG+1, and then calls. UTG+1 calls, too.

Flop comes T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. NOT my flop.

I <font color=" red">bet out</font>, UTG <font color=" red">raises</font>, UTG+1 <font color=" red">re-raises</font>. Fu[/i]ck. What do you do here?

Assuming UTG calls, there'll be 18 SB in the pot, and it's 2 more to me. However, I don't know if UTG will cap if I call. I'm scared of TT, JJ, QQ, and AK. If either have any of these, I'm in a BAD way. If it's AQ vs KK, I'm way ahead. (I can't really imagine either has 2pair.)

Whatcha think?
-Sam

[PhatPots]

I think I would cap it. Of course UTG hit a piece of that flop. I would wonder what UTG+1 has, but u can't fold this here. I think cap and hope for a kind turn or a free card. If either player had TT-QQ, they probably would have capped this preflop. I dunno, maybe I am wrong here. I wanna see what other people say. But I can't put someone on a set here. I think there is a chance of someone have KQ or a K.

Pots

[Nick C]

I wouldn't fold.

If you are behind (and I do think there's a good chance you are), what would be sort of nice, in terms of your outs situation, would be to be against two sets.

Unfortunately, you could be up against something like TT and KQs/AQs instead, which would leave you without much in the way of outs.

But I would call, see what UTG wants to do, and reevaluate on the turn.

[MCS]

I don't like the idea of capping the flop and seeing what happens on the turn out of position. If the turn is a blank, we check and UTG bets and gets called, what do we do?

I guess I just don't see how seeing the turn helps us that much. Maybe we can fold to a bet and a raise, but if we're behind now then no one is slowing down.

So best case, let's say we can see the turn for only the current two bets. Then the pot odds would be 17.5:2. I don't think that's enough. How many outs do you think you have? Between the two guys against you, I don't think you have enough.

Let's say UTG raises with: AA-99, AK-AJ, KQ. Then what can he be raising the flop with? AA-TT, AK, AQ. Only KK and AQ are good for you. Would he just call preflop with KK?

What about UTG+1? He's a good player who coldcalls a preflop UTG raise? He'd 3-bet with AA-QQ, so it looks like AQs or JJ-88, maybe? And now he three bets a preflop blind 3-bettor who got raised on that flop? I really think this is TT or maybe JJ.

My guess: UTG has AQ, UTG+1 has TT. In that case, you have outs with a king, but even if you hit it you will split, and TT has boat redraws.

So fold.

[WillyTrailer]

I fold. I don't know what UTG+1 is doing unless he's getting tricky with something like AKs preflop or has AQs and then went a little nutso on the flop thinking he could push you off of a better hand. Regardless, I think you're in a heap of trouble against UTG alone. When he looks at you and thinks preflop this means (I think) he has a hand he could cap but is going to wait for the flop and see what to do letting you keep control over the hand for now.
I doubt he passes up capping KK, but it's possible. Otherwise, he's holding AK, QQ, or JJ (and less likely TT).

Surely both of these guys think that your 3-bet from the BB indicates AA, KK, QQ or AK (unless you became significantly looser sometime in the recent past). Given that these guys will bet thinking that these are your likely holdings, I think you're done.

Maybe this game has gone into 'see who can move someone off a big hand' mode, but if it's still an attempt at really good poker like I remember then I'm getting out of the way because it looks like the chips are gonna fly and I've got the worst of it.

-WT

(I'm really confused by UTG+1's play. who was it and what did he have?)

[setzf]

i don't like capping here if for no other reason that you don't gain any information this way. if i was to stay in the hand i would call to see what utg does. if the read on the players is correct i don't see either of them raising the flop with AK on a rainbow flop unless they expect to be re-raised. i think they would realise they could wait for the turn to raise with the nuts. this is good for you since being up against big slick is the last thing you'd want.

So to recap this is what i see. UTG raised preflop, got called and 3-bet by good players then raised the flop. his holdings are probably TT-QQ, AQ, AJs, KQs. Then UTG+1 cold called a good player, got 3-bet by a good player in the blind then called. then 3-bet a raise and re-raise on the flop. most likely holdings here then are TT-JJ, AQ, KQs, or QJs. given the hand ranges you don't have enough equity (about 27%) to reraise. youre getting about 7.5-1 to call which is enough i think since you'll have tons of equity if you hit any of your outs and can probably trap both opponents for several big bets.