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#1
02-18-2005, 01:32 PM
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Previous Ed Miller hand quiz on CGTV
Ed, I have a question about this portion of (hand #6?)
<font color="blue">You bet, and Dangermaus calls [9 big bets, based on Ed's previous action]. The river is the Jd, giving you top pair and making the final board 10h9c5d3dJd. Dangermaus checks. What should you do? B. Bet. You probably have the best hand. Dangermaus may have a small pair. Or he may have flopped a straight draw with a hand like queen-jack or jack-eight, which means he now has top pair as well, but you have him out-kicked. He will likely pay you off with these hands. True, he could have made jacks up on the river, a straight or a diamond flush, but these possibilities are less likely. There are a lot more ways for him to have exactly one pair than two pair or better. Never forget that it's as difficult for others to make good hands as it is for you. Don't be unduly worried about the long shots. You have top pair with a strong kicker, which is a significant favorite to be best. Bet your hand for value. </font> Can you bet for value here? I wasn't worried about the longshots as much as wondering what hands he could call my river bet with, after my aggressive play and the river flush came? I said check, given that you had the top pair and (I didn't think) couldn't expect to get called by too many hands that you beat here. I bolded the one section above to point out that there are a lot MORE ways that your hand doesn't get any value from the bet. It's probably +EV to bet than check, but unless I'm really sure I'm getting called with the worse hand often enough, I go with checking here as a general rule. So, leak or not? I'm only losing a lot if I would have caused a better hand than mine to fold- not very likely. Is the smaller gain of a big bet here worth the risk enough to have to do it? 
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#2
02-18-2005, 01:40 PM
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Re: Previous Ed Miller hand quiz on CGTV
I think ed could have come up with better names than dangermaus.
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