critique my plays please

[ubercuber]

Hmm. Very interesting, and informative responses! I should read the referenced Teaser debate post, if someone links it or gives a poster's name so I can searchit out I would be grateful.

To make sure I get this so far:

I would have probably listed the important numbers to cross, in order, as 0,3,7,6,10/9, 14, 17 and getting redundant from here. But in thining about this I realize that I passed on teasing Atl to +2.5 because the 2.5 was not very helpful. So, what I am looking to get is the best use of my 6 points as relates t ocrossing these important numbers. Correct?

I see, in accordance with this logic, that bumping the Rams to 19.5 is crossing both 14 and 17, but of less importance because 13.5 is a high spread already. However, what about the value of crossing the line of reality? Teasing to 19.5 seems to be of great value because this line is ridiculous now, in addition to crossing 14 and 17 (arguably the same thing).

The other question I have, due top the fact that I am not getting 2-1 for this teaser, but 9-5 instead, is what do people think of sportsbook.com? I am a Paradise Poker recruitee and have not strayed beyond yet.

Thanks a ton.

[ubercuber]

[ QUOTE ]
The Pats wouldn't be a bad teaser addition except that they're +3 +113 on Pinnacle right now. You can also get +3.5 -112/113 on Tradesports and Pinnacle respectively.

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I wish I knew why this info makes your point! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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what do people think of sportsbook.com?

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The lines there arent usually very good, you can almost find better. Except for Fridays when they offer -105 lines. I use it mostly for props, which they offer a lot of.

[whipsaw]

Most important numbers are 3, 4, and 7. If you cross all three with your teaser, it is +EV. Search for Sygamel's posts, he posts a lot about teasers.

[ubercuber]

[ QUOTE ]
Most important numbers are 3, 4, and 7. If you cross all three with your teaser, it is +EV. Search for Sygamel's posts, he posts a lot about teasers.

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Thanks for the info...I didn't include 4, but I see why.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]

I would have probably listed the important numbers to cross, in order, as 0,3,7,6,10/9, 14, 17 and getting redundant from here.


[/ QUOTE ]
What's so valuable about crossing the 0? We don't see many ties in the NFL.
[ QUOTE ]

I see, in accordance with this logic, that bumping the Rams to 19.5 is crossing both 14 and 17, but of less importance because 13.5 is a high spread already. However, what about the value of crossing the line of reality? Teasing to 19.5 seems to be of great value because this line is ridiculous now, in addition to crossing 14 and 17 (arguably the same thing).


[/ QUOTE ]
Well, if you think the +13.5 spread is off (no opinion here, not a football capper myself), then the best way to utilize your resources is to bet on the Rams +13.5. Getting +19.5 might not ruin a teaser and may even come in more than the 70% or so required, but it's not the best way to bet a +13.5 spread that is considerably off.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I should elaborate and say that the central part of teaser value, for me, is both the teaser's chance of success (>70%), but also its relative value over a straight up bet.

Part of the my problem with the 3-to-9s is that I don't think you get the value over betting straight up. In the Broncos game, I would agree that the 3 is a big number: a Bronco win by a field goal is a likely scenario. But by teasing the 3, you're not turning a loss into a win, you're turning a push into a win, and there's less value there. Teasing the 4.5, for instance turns both the 7 and the 10 from a loss into a win, and doesn't affect the 3, which was a win anyway. That's why I prefer those.

There's still nothing like getting the 3-to-7 though, which, as we agree, is the bread and butter of successful teasers.

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My point was that the 3 is such an important number in football, that turning a loss into a push, or a push into a win is about as important as turning a loss into a win for ANY other number.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Pats wouldn't be a bad teaser addition except that they're +3 +113 on Pinnacle right now. You can also get +3.5 -112/113 on Tradesports and Pinnacle respectively.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I knew why this info makes your point! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It makes his point because you aren't getting any "extra" credit for teasing the Pats, unlike if you bet them +3.

For instance, suppose that Broncos win by 3 10% of the time, by 4-8 13% of the time, and by 9 4% of the time. The tease is going to come through 20% more often than the
straight bet (13%+.5*(14%)). If the Pats were +3 -110, the books would be saying they were about 50% to cover, and the tease would come through 70%. However, they are +113 - meaning the books (or the public), think they will only cover about 45% of the time. Now the tease only comes through 65% of the time, and is no longer profitable.

Now, you may argue that the Pats line is not correct and they are more than 45% to cover, but if so, it would be a better idea to bet them against the spread rather than as part of a tease.

[ubercuber]

What's so valuable about crossing the 0? We don't see many ties in the NFL
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My thinking was that if a team was a favorite to win, and you tease the line across the zero, you are now helping the favorite by giving them points. I see the flaw in terms of value for your bet, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of making a value play vs a less risky play. So I may like the PAts +3, but I like them even better +9. Obviously I need to understand the math better!

So your calculations above represent turning the 4-8 range from loss into wins=13% and the 3 from a push to a win and the 9 from a loss to a push= (10% + 4%*.5 =7%) for a teaser value of 20% improved winning chances. Correct?

How does the -110 indicate a 50% chance to cover, especially when this line may change based on heavy betting to one side?

Thanks.

[ubercuber]

I assume you just pulled the other numbers from a hat, the 13, 4 and 10%...is there a way to come up these types of numbers that isn't labor intensive analysis..ie whatwilllikelyhappen.com

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Thanks.