Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans - Page 5

Mr_J · #41 10-12-2005, 01:18 AM

Let them have their fun.

scott8 · #42 10-12-2005, 01:23 AM

Does anyone else find it eerie that last week people were saying there is no way that Dallas could stay with Philly and this week they say no way NO can stay with Atlanta?

I think there is something about the human condition in all this and its frightening.

Then again, NO only scored 3 points against GB. . .

ubercuber · #43 10-12-2005, 02:05 AM

Well I did disagree pretty strongly with the Colts 49ers line last wknd and made a few bucks. I was seeking this one out before I saw the line and thought...wtf??
I will heed your wisdom and look for ways I could be wrong. Seriously though: What sort of analysis tools do people use? FREE tools. Thanks.

TheGame1020 · #44 10-12-2005, 03:29 AM

People like you should not be allowed to post.

FishNChips · #45 10-12-2005, 04:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How come the oddsmakers set the line at 4.5 and not 7+? Wouldn't you even consider betting Atl -7.5? Since all the action so far is on Atlanta and sportsbooks like any going concern are out to make money -- ask yourself whether they're really giving $ away this weekend. Sure they could take a massive bath but that doesn't happen often.

[/ QUOTE ]

between this and eggzz post, I am starting to see the case for NOT betting ATL here. I don't see a case to bet NO, but I understand the "ATL is NOT a lock" argument.

my question is "how much do we consider injuries?" Deuce is out so Antowain Smith is carrying the rock. Horn is maybe out, no one to throw to. Brooks is a MESS right now.

lemme ask 1 other question ... if I'm putting a Teaser together shud I include the Falcons +1?

Thanks,
FishNChips

ThaHero · #46 10-12-2005, 05:05 AM

I was also considering putting the Falcons in a teaser. I don't know if they will cover or not, but I am pretty sure they will win this game.

Also, Dallas is a lot better team than N.O. is. Blown out by NY, Minn, and GB. Dallas hasn't been blown out all year. But I do get the point.

#47 10-12-2005, 05:35 AM

Gentlemen, again...ask yourself why the line isn't 7+. Nearly every single piece of action on this game has been on Atl -4.5 yet the line hasn't moved. The books are running a business not setting up a free ATM LOL

If you like Atl so much, just bet the money line or buy at buy the line down to -2.5 at least.

Ed: well I decided I was not going to do this as long as I was on the board but since the percentage of people here represent a very small slice of bettors I will do it anyway. What you guys new to NFL betting need to understand is the talent level disparity between perceived good and bad NFL teams, despite all the hype about certain offensive players, certain defensive players, certain special teams players by all the TV talking heads and online writers, is extremely small, say a 98% for the Colts and a 94% for the 49ers. At the college level the disparity is far, far larger, resulting in the ridiculous sized spreads you see weekly.

The players in the NFL, even the ones populating the beat up San Fran secondary last Sunday (as an example), were still among the very best players at the college level, period. So when you see a 52-3 score, a blowout by any characterization, you need to realize there are factors that go into the game result that affect even the very best professionals -- in the case of NO, playing an 0-4 team in front of a rabid home crowd, travel, the opposing offense clicking in the way they should have all year really against almost any defense, the GB O-line finally having a dominating performance etc. Think of a team's performance in "kinetic energy" if you can remember back to K-12...the guys at the NFL level are so good that the potential for great performance is always there, no matter how bad you perceive the team is. It was only two weeks ago everyone was writing epitaphs for GB and 5 weeks ago no one thought a 2-14 San Fran team could beat the Rams.

In addition, let's translate what a 49 point blowout equates to in the NBA, for ex. -- it happens with the likely frequency of a 45 point loss, let's further say with a final score of 120-75. Do you think an NBA team suffering this kind of loss will barely win any more games the rest of the season, home court/field be damned or not? Couldn't they have just had a bad shooting night or face a team that "couldn't miss"? When football scores are lopsided, they look a helluva lot worse than NBA scores. My point on this level is if you really think of a 52-3 score as a situation where "Green Bay scored 17 x more than NO" then laugh to yourself rather than thinking about it as a 120-75 loss, then you're in for a heap of trouble over the LR in NFL betting.

Talent level disparity -- extremely small
Subtle factors/"kinetic energy"
Misleading final scores

Take these three away from this discussion regardless of whether you bet Atlanta or not.

#48 10-12-2005, 06:29 AM

.

ElSapo · #49 10-12-2005, 07:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm so confident at a 10+ point win, that I threw my entire bankroll of $223 on this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

It bears pointing out (and you may know, or you may not care), that most people are giving you a hard time because of the tone of your post and not the pick.

There really is, you've got to know, no such thing as a lock. And anyone who keeps proclaiming "I'm absolutely right, absolutely," will continue to get rough treatment.

A lot of people agree with you about the pick (obvious by the wagering stats up at SB), but you'll win no friends by acting or posting arrogantly.

You probably knew all that, however.

#50 10-12-2005, 11:08 AM

Very well put, and educational.