Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans - Page 4

jedinite · #31 10-11-2005, 09:21 PM

Handicapping Trends
Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4-0 ATS in their last 6 away games
Atlanta is 14-2-0 ATS in their last 16 away games against New Orleans
Atlanta is 18-7-0 ATS in their last 25 games against New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-4-0 OU in their last 6 games
Atlanta is 6-16-0 OU in their last 22 away
Atlanta is 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games against New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games away against New Orleans
Atlanta is 4-2-0 SU in their last 6 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs
Atlanta is 4-2-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs

New Orleans
New Orleans are 6-3-0 ATS in their last 9 games
New Orleans are 3-7-0 ATS in their last 10 home games
New Orleans are 2-18-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against Atlanta
New Orleans are 7-18-0 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlanta[/b]
New Orleans are 2-7-0 OU in their last 9 games
New Orleans are 1-5-0 OU in their last 6 at home
New Orleans are 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games against Atlanta
New Orleans are 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games at home against Atlanta
New Orleans are 5-2-0 SU in their last 7 games after scoring less than 10 points
New Orleans are 5-2-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 10 points
New Orleans are 11-5-0 SU in their last 16 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs
New Orleans are 11-5-0 ATS in their last 16 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogs

Betting Situations
Atlanta most recently...
After a loss are 7-2
After playing Patriots are 2-6
Before playing Jets are 1-0
When playing within division are 6-4
When they are favored on the road are 7-3
After being out gained by opponent are 5-4
When playing in October are 4-6

New Orleans most recently...
After a loss are 5-5
After playing Packers are 4-5
When playing within division are 6-4
When they are a dog at home are 4-6
After being out gained by opponent are 5-5
When playing in October are 4-6

CCx · #32 10-11-2005, 09:43 PM

if people keep posting these simpsons screen caps, i'll keep laughing

kdog · #33 10-11-2005, 10:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3. Here is another trend play to consider. I sometimes look to play on the team that lost by the widest margin the week prior. I look for inflated line value here. A lot of time the public is all over the opponent of a team that got shellacked the week prior, and the team that got shellacked is in turn looking to redeem themselves. Hence you have (extra) built in line value here. New Orleans would most definitely fit the bill here. I would love to see a trend on the success of an NFL team covering in the week after a 30+ point loss. Or a trend on the success (ATS) of the team that lost by the biggest margin, the following week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo! Nobody likes to be embarrassed and when it happens to a team they tend to play a little harder the following week. And the line has frequently been adjusted due to the embarrassment. This is one I've watched and had success with for years.

One caveat though. This works better in NCAA games especially if the embarrassment happened in a nationally televised game.

27offsuit · #34 10-11-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This has got to be the most generous spread of the week. Atlanta is giving 4.5 points to New Orleans. With Duce out, and maybe Joe Horn out, and after a 52-3 beating by Green Bay, I see Atlanta slaughtering NO. If Vick is out, which he shouldnt be, Shaub has proven to be an excellent replacement.

I'm so confident at a 10+ point win, that I threw my entire bankroll of $223 on this game.

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Please forward this to natedogg immediately....he needs it for his Week 6 BSP report.

#35 10-11-2005, 10:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Please forward this to natedogg immediately....he needs it for his Week 6 BSP report.

[/ QUOTE ]

Near certainty BSP play. Sides wagering at sportsbook.com is 99-1 in Atl's favor!

whipsaw · #36 10-11-2005, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3. Here is another trend play to consider. I sometimes look to play on the team that lost by the widest margin the week prior. I look for inflated line value here. A lot of time the public is all over the opponent of a team that got shellacked the week prior, and the team that got shellacked is in turn looking to redeem themselves. Hence you have (extra) built in line value here. New Orleans would most definitely fit the bill here. I would love to see a trend on the success of an NFL team covering in the week after a 30+ point loss. Or a trend on the success (ATS) of the team that lost by the biggest margin, the following week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Going back to 2003, the first season I could just physically look at week by week results on covers.com, I got the following ATS results for teams in their next game following a 30+ point defeat:

2003: 8-5-1
2004: 3-6
2005: 2-0
Total: 14-11-1

This includes a 1-0 for New Orleans under this set of criteria. This trend doesn't look the best for blind betting it.

ubercuber · #37 10-11-2005, 10:58 PM

I am new to sports betting, but all the data on Atlanta vs NO, vs the spread etc... ?? How much meaning do people place on these numbers? Serious question. I really don't know jack about analysis. I don't think you should bet your roll on anything but lets face it, NO was owned by Green Bay and Minnesota. Nothing is a lock, but NO sucks, Atlanta is a really good team on both sides of the ball. I just can't see taking the Saints.

#38 10-11-2005, 11:11 PM

How come the oddsmakers set the line at 4.5 and not 7+? Wouldn't you even consider betting Atl -7.5? Since all the action so far is on Atlanta and sportsbooks like any going concern are out to make money -- ask yourself whether they're really giving $ away this weekend. Sure they could take a massive bath but that doesn't happen often.

MCS · #39 10-11-2005, 11:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing is a lock, but NO sucks, Atlanta is a really good team on both sides of the ball. I just can't see taking the Saints.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will restate my earlier post.

There's no free money in the NFL.

If you disagree strongly with a widely available line, your first thought should be, "I am wrong."

#40 10-11-2005, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am new to sports betting, but all the data on Atlanta vs NO, vs the spread etc... ?? How much meaning do people place on these numbers? Serious question. I really don't know jack about analysis. I don't think you should bet your roll on anything but lets face it, NO was owned by Green Bay and Minnesota. Nothing is a lock, but NO sucks, Atlanta is a really good team on both sides of the ball. I just can't see taking the Saints.

[/ QUOTE ]

I, too, am very new to sports betting. I put down a 4 unit bet on this and am thinking about more.